Stat of the Day, 13th June 2019

Wednesday’s pick was…

5.50 Kempton : Kingston Kurrajong @ 7/2 BOG non-runner (Meeting abandoned due to a lack of water, despite the current UK monsoon)

Thursday’s pick runs in the…

4.20 Nottingham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Cent Flying @ 9/2 BOG

…in a 10-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Heavy (Soft in places) ground worth £3234 to the winner…

Why?

This 4 yr old gelding was a decent second in a higher grade off a higher mark last time out at Brighton 16 days ago and has won 3 of his 12 Flat handicap starts, amongst which he has…

  • 3 from 9 at 5.5/6 furlongs
  • 3 from 9 in fields of less than 12 runners
  • 2 from 6 at Class 6
  • 2 from 9 with a Tongue Tie
  • no run on heavy, but 1 from 1 on Soft

He is trained by William Muir who is 2 from 6 this week alone and since 2012 has saddled up 11 Nottingham winners from just 63 runners (17.5% SR) for level stakes profits of 18.4pts at a reasonable enough ROI of 29.2% from blind backing and whilst 63 isn’t a massive sample size, it does throw up some interesting and profitable angles that are at play today, such as…

  • 11 from 44 (25%) for 37.4pts (+85%) from male runners and you could stop there if you wanted to!
  • 9/23 (39.1%) for 20.4pts (+88.6%) at odds of 6/1 and shorter
  • 9/38 (23.7%) for 33.9pts (+89.2%) within 25 days of their last run
  • 7/45 (15.6%) for 19.1pts (+42.4%) in races worth less than £4,000 to the winner
  • 6/21 (28.6%) for 35.4pts (+168.4%) at 16-25 days since last run
  • 6/31 (19.4%) for 29.9pts (+96.5%) on the straight track here at Nottingham
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 10.22pts (+92.9%) from those with a top 2 finish LTO
  • 4/14 (28.6%) for 38pts (+271.1%) over this 6f course and distance
  • 3/6 (50%) for 9.02pts (+150.3%) on Soft/Heavy ground
  • 3/11 (27.3%) for 6.85pts (+62.3%) at Class 6
  • and 1/2 (50%) for 2.16pts (+108%) on heavy ground

If you were to start combining the above factors, you’d quickly dilute the number of qualifiers down to an unworkably low number, but a simple starting point would be to back William Muir’s male runners here sent off at 6/1 and shorter within 45 days of their last run for 8 winners from 16 (50% SR) and 23.2pts profit at a healthy ROI of 145.1%…

…which would generate… a 1pt win bet on Cent Flying @ 9/2 BOG which was available from Bet365 & 888Sport at 5.50pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 4.20 Nottingham

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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