Stat of the Day, 14th June 2019

Thursday’s pick was…

4.20 Nottingham : Cent Flying @ 9/2 BOG 4th at 7/2 (Held up, headway over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, no extra well inside final furlong)

Friday’s pick runs in the…

4.05 York :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sir Dancealot @ 3/1 BOG

…in the 5-runner, Listed Ganton Stakes for 3yo+ over 1m on Good To Soft ground worth £28355 to the winner…

Why?…

Here we have a 5 yr old gelding who, when presented with similar conditions to today, has achieved the following…

• 7 wins from 21 (33.3% SR) in non-handicaps
• 4 from 13 (30.8%) in non-Gr1 races at Class 1
• 6 from 9 (66.6%) when sent off shorter than 9/2
• 3 from 7 (42.9%) under today’s jockey Gerald Mosse
• and he has won one of his two starts here at York.

The afore-mentioned jockey Gerald Mosse is 4 from 17 (23.5% SR) here in the UK so far this month and since the start of 2011 has ridden 23 winners in UK Class 1 contests from 138 attempts. That 1 in 6 strike rate has yielded 58.2pts profit at an ROI of 42.2%, including 4 wins from 18 (22.2%) for 9.93pts (+55.2%) on horses trained by David Elsworth.

In fact, this is only the second year that the pair have teamed up, but the fledgling partnership is already worth 8 winners from 34 (23.5% SR) and 11.47pts (+33.7% ROI) profit, from which the following are relevant today…

• 8 from 27 (29.6%) for 18.47pts (+68.4%) at 6f to 1m
• 7 from 9 (77.8%) for 25.87pts (+287.5%) at odds of 6/4 to 5/1
• 7 from 26 (26.9%) for 15.82pts (+60.8%) on 3-5 yr olds
• 4 from 8 (50%) for 12.16pts (+152%) during June to August

…whilst 3-5 yr olds racing over 7f to 1m at odds of 6/4 to 5/1 during June to August are 4 from 4 (100% SR) for 16.16pts (+404% ROI), including a hat-trick of wins with Sir Dancealot last summer…

…providing us with… a 1pt win bet on Sir Dancealot @ 3/1 BOG which was available from Bet365 & BetVictor at 5.25pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 4.05 York

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!