Stat of the Day, 15th June 2019

Friday’s pick was…

4.05 York : Sir Dancealot @ 5/1 BOG 4th at 7/2 (Went right start, held up in touch, under pressure 3f out, soon no impression)

Saturday’s pick runs in the…

5.20 Bath :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Luckys Dream @ 11/4 BOG

…in an 11 (was 12) runner, Class 6 Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Good To Soft ground worth £3105 to the winner…

Why?

Here we have a 4 yr old gelding arriving on a hat-trick mission after wins in this grade over 1m2f at Yarmouth 16 days ago and then over 1m2.5f at Nottingham last time out, 10 days back. These back to back successes have improved his record to a respectable 4 wins from 17, which with today’s contest in mind include…

  • 4 from 13 in fields of 9-15 runners (not afraid of company!)
  • 4/10 in handicaps
  • 4/10 going left handed
  • 4/9 at Class 6
  • 4/7 over 10/10.5 furlongs
  • 4/7 at odds of 8/1 and shorter
  • 2/3 within a fortnight of his last run
  • and 2/3 in May/June

…whilst at 8/1 and shorter going left handed in 9-15 runner Class 6 handicaps over 1m2f-1m2.5f, he is 4 from 5 (80% SR) for 24.7pts (+494% ROI), having been a runner-up beaten by half a length in the one he didn’t win!

He is trained by Ian Williams who, since the start of 2016 in UK handicaps, has 49 winers from 121 (40.5% SR) from horses sent back out 1-10 days after a top 3 finish. Blindly backing all 121 runners would have netted you £1046 profit from a £20 level stakes at an ROI of 43.2%.

If, however, you didn’t want to back all such runners (and I rarely suggest you do!), then the following angles are at play today…

  • 49/103 (47.6%) for 70.3pts (+68.3%) at odds of 6/1 and shorter
  • 24/58 (41.4%) for 20.9pts (+36.1%) from LTO winners
  • 20/40 (50%) for 35.1pts (+87.9%) on the Flat
  • 15/27 (55.6%) for 33.4pts (123.5%) at Class 6
  • 13/27 (48.2%) for 24.6pts (+91.3%) from 4 yr olds
  • 11/21 (52.4%) for 11.5pts (+54.8%) from those dropping in trip by 0.5 to 1 furlong
  • 9/14 (64.3%) for 20.8pts (+148.6%) at 1m2f/1m2.5f
  • 5/6 (83.3%) for 15.83pts (+263.9%) in June
  • 3/5 (60%) for 5.08pts (101.6%) from those ridden by Adam Kirby, who himself is 20/70 (28.6%) for 44.7pts (+63.8%) here at Bath over the last five seasons
  • 2/5 (40%) for 0.62pts (+12.4%) here at Bath

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Luckys Dream @ 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 9.35pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 5.20 Bath

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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