Stat of the Day, 17th June 2019

Saturday’s pick was…

5.20 Bath : Luckys Dream @ 11/4 BOG non-runner (race abandoned)

Monday’s pick runs in the…

8.40 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Oydis @ 11/4 BOG

…in an 11-runner, Class 5 Flat Handicap for 3yo over 1m2f on Soft ground worth £3752 to the winner…


This 3 yr old filly is trained by Ralph Beckett, who has his string in fine order right now with 9 winners from 30 (30% SR) in the past fortnight and an excellent 6 from 14 (42.9%) in the last week, which sets him up nicely for a good day at a track where he has done historically well.

His record at Windsor has been very good for a long time, but based on the type of horses I generally look for, I’m just going to assess his record with handicappers priced at 11/1 and shorter, of which Ralph has 22 winners from 90 (24.4% SR) and 27.6pts profit at an ROI of 30.7% and with today’s contest in mind, here’s how he got those winners…

  • 18 from 67 (26.9%) for 31.3pts (+46.8%) from his 3 yr olds
  • 17/64 (26.6%) for 32.4pts (+50.6%) from those with fewer than 4 previous handicap runs
  • 14/40 (35%) for 23.9pts (59.8%) within 25 days of their last outing
  • 13/34 (38.2%) for 28.9pts (+85.1%) over trips of 8.5 to 10 furlongs
  • 12/40 (30%) for 26.2pts (+65.4%) with female runners
  • 11/42 (26.2%) for 29.1pts (+69.4%) in 3yo only races
  • 8/32 925%) for 12.7pts (+39.7%) at Class 5
  • 5/20 (25%) for 16.6pts (+83%) from those with 1-3 previous runs
  • 4/18 (22.2%) for 7.58pts (+42.1%) on handicap debut
  • and 4/18 (22.2%) for 7.51pts (+41.7%) on ground deemed soft or worse…

…from which 3 yr olds with fewer than 4 previous handicap runs are 8 from 21 (38.1% SR) for 22.8pts (+108.8% ROI) within 3 weeks of their last outing…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Oydis @ 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 6.35pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 8.40 Windsor

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Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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