Stat of the Day, 19th June 2019

Tuesday’s pick was…

7.50 Brighton : Oliver Hardy @ 7/2 BOG WON at 5/2 (Tracked leaders on inside, led inside final 2f, clear when ridden over 1f out, stayed on well)

Wednesday’s pick runs in the…

7.10 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Indeed @ 5/1 BOG

…in a 10-runner, Class 2 A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m2f on Polytrack worth £16172 to the winner…

Why?

Well, if I’m honest, there’s no big standout blockbuster of a stat, but there was enough circumstantial evidence allied to a decent price to entice me into a bet on a 4 yr old gelding making just a second UK start, having been a runner-up in a big-field (26 ran!), £31k, Class 2 handicap at Newbury 67 days ago.

He was only beaten by a neck on that occasion at odds of 50/1, but does already have two wins under his belt as a 3 yr old in France with successes over 1m and 1m1f on debut and also after a 67 day break, like today!

His “new” trainer Dominic Ffrench Davis has had 3 winners from 13 (23.1% SR) for 29pts profit (+223.3% ROI) here at Chelmsford over the last 12 months and these include 3 from 9 (33.3%) for 33pts (+211.1%) in handicaps and 2 winners from 4 (50%) at 10.56pts (+264%) at single-digit odds.

And further assurance comes from the fact that he was sired by Showcasing, whose offspring are 72/521 (13.8% SR) for 188.3pts (+36.1% ROI) on Polytrack over trips of 5f to 1m2f and these include…

  • 44 from 330 (13.3%) for 154.6pts (+46.9%) in handicaps
  • 18/125 (14.4%) for 32pts (+25.6%) here at Chelmsford
  • and 14 from 98 (14.3%) for 22.8pts (+23.3%) in Chelmsford handicaps…

…pointing to… a 1pt win bet on Indeed @ 5/1 BOG as offered by Bet365, Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.35pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 7.10 Chelmsford

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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