Stat of the Day, 21st June 2019

Thursday’s pick was…

6.00 Ffos Las : Grania O’Malley @ 3/1 BOG WON at 2/1 (2nd until led before 10th, soon 4 lengths clear, maintained advantage until last, driven and held on gamely close home)

Friday’s pick runs in the…

7.50 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Agincourt @ 7/2 or 10/3 BOG

…in a 9-runner, Class 3 Fillies Flat Handicap  for 3yo+ over 7f on Good To Soft ground worth £9704 to the winner…

Why?…

This 4 yr old filly has three wins and two runner-up finishes in her last six starts (form = 181212), winning alternate races and making herself of instant appeal to those who like numerical sequences 😉

She was less than a length behind Victory Wave last time out (15 days ago) in a Class 2 contest at Chelmsford over a mile, so she’s dropping in class and trip today for her reappearance, whilst her victor from that race has since stepped up to Listed class.

She has 3 wins from 9 overall, from which the following increase her appeal today…

• 3/4 in fields of 9 or more runners
• 3/6 over 7f/1m
• 2/5 in handicaps
• 1/1 at Class 3
• 1/1 on Good to Soft
• and 1/2 over 7f

Danny Tudhope rode her to victory two starts ago (he wasn’t on board LTO) and he has a win and a place from three starts on this filly and he arrives here in excellent form, maintaining a consistent 20%+ strike rate over the last couple months, including 6 winners from 18 over the last five days, amongst which he has 3 wins and a place from just five rides at Royal Ascot!

Regarding Mr Tudhope, much has been written (including by me!) about his record/relationship with David O’Meara, so I’m not going to plough that well-worn furrow and bore you with those figures today, but I do want to touch on one aspect of their partnership that I do keep an eye out for, as some of you might not be aware that the combo are 14 from 51 (27.5% SR) for 47.5pts (+93.1% ROI) with runners sent off at 10/1 and shorter in Fillies’ handicaps on the Flat.

And of this 14/51 record, the partnership is…

• 13/38 (34.2%) for 47.1pts (+124.1%) with runners last seen 6-30 days earlier
• 12/38 (31.6%) for 48.5pts (+127.7%) in 3yo+ races
• 5/18 (27.8%) for 23.4pts (+129.9%) at Class 3
• 4/9 (44.4%) for 19.2pts (+213.4%) over 7f
• 4/9 (44.4%) for 17.1pts (+190.2%) from LTO runners-up
• and 3/6 (50%) for 15pts (+250%) from those dropping down a class

…and if you wanted 95% of the original profits from just 55% of the bets, then those racing in 3yo+ contests after a break of 6-30 days are 11 from 28 (39.3%) for 45.2pts (+161.4% ROI)…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Agincourt @ 7/2 or 10/3 BOG as offered by Bet365 & Ladbrokes at 6.10pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 7.50 Newmarket

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!