Stat of the Day, 22nd June 2019

Friday’s pick was…

7.50 Newmarket : Agincourt @ 10/3 BOG 2nd at 9/4 (In touch, headway 2f out, led over 1f out, ridden and headed inside final furlong)

Saturday’s pick runs in the…

3.40 Royal Ascot :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Defoe @ 4/1 BOG

…in the 9-runner, Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes  for 4yo+ over 1m4f on Good (Good to Firm in places, but was initially Good To Soft!) ground worth £127598 to the winner…

Why?…

Well, I’m taking one of my rare dips into Class 1 racing with this 5yr old gelding who has got better and better this season. He finished 113 last season and was then gelded. He returned from a long break to finish fourth in a Gr3, then was a runner-up at Gr2 before winning the Gr 1 Coronation Cup over this trip at Epsom 22 days ago.

Technically, this is a slight drop in class and if he gets the breaks he might need, then we should all be celebrating at 3.45pm today.

He has won 8 of 14 starts to date, including of relevance today…

• 6/7 as favourite
• 6/9 at odds below 5/1
• 6/11 under today’s jockey Andrea Atzeni
• 5/10 at Class 1
• 4/6 at 11/12 furlongs
• and 4/7 on Good ground

His trainer Roger Varian had a winner here yesterday and since 2012 over trips of 6-12 furlongs at Class 1, has notched up a vey respectable 70 winners from 444 (15.8% SR) for 117.7pts (+26.5% ROI), from which the following are at play this afternoon…

• 48/183 (26.2%) for 8.22pts (+4.5%) at odds of 6/1 and shorter
• 42/280 (15%) for 123.8pts (+44.2%) on Good/Good to Firm ground
• 37/199 (18.6%) for 111.6pts (+56.1%) ridden by Andrea Atzeni
• 33/194 (17%) for 119.7pts (+61.7%) at 11-30 days since last run
• 31/156 (19.9%) for 121.1pts (+77.6%) in fields of 9-12 runners
• 27/147 (18.4%) for 58.1pts (+39.5%) from LTO winners
• and 17/84 (20.2%) for 18.9pts (+22.5%) from 5/6 yr olds

And finally, a quick glance at the pace and draw tabs on our interactive racecard  suggests that horses drawn highest do well in this type of contest, as do those who like to be held up for a late run, whilst those drawn higher and are held up do very well indeed.

Defoe certainly won the Coronation Cup from off the pace and looks the likeliest to be held up today and he’ll come from stall 7. He might need a gap or two to open up for him (the track is certainly wide enough anyway), but if he gets a clear enough run, he’s the one for me here…

…hence… a 1pt win bet on Defoe @ 4/1 BOG as offered pretty much everywhere at 6.05pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 3.40 Royal Ascot

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!