Stat of the Day, 25th June 2019

Monday’s pick was…

3.45 Southwell : Graceland @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 2/1 (Raced on inside, chased leader, led before 3rd until 2 out, lost 2nd between last 2, no extra in 3rd)

Tuesday’s pick runs in the…

2.15 Brighton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Shamshon @ 13/2 or 11/2 BOG

…in an 8-runner, Class 4 Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 5½f on Good to Firm ground worth £5531 to the winner… 

Why?

Well, we have an 8yr old gelding with a win and a place from three visits to this track including two runs over course and distance that saw him finish as a runner-up and then as a winner when last tackling the C&D three starts ago, when ridden by today’s jockey for three first/only previous occasion.

He last ran seven days ago and he has a 6/24 (25% SR) record that has produced 12.22pts profit at an ROI of 50.9% when turned back out 6-12 days after his last run, including 6/17 (35.3%) for 19.2pts (+113.1%) at odds of 11/4 to 7/1, from which he is 2 from 5 (40%) for 4.01pts (+80.2%) at Class 4.

His quick re-appearance should not only suit him, but is also one of the regular methods deployed by trainer Stuart Williams, whose Flat handicappers are 15 from 63 (23.8% SR) for 41.2pts (+65.4% ROI) over the last three (inc. this one) seasons when turned back out after less than 10 days rest, from which…

  • males are 14/55 (25.5%) for 41.3pts (+75%)
  • those running in June/August are 10/35 (28.6%) for 41.3pts (+118%)
  • and Class 4 runners are 6/21 (28.6%) for 23.3pts (+110.8%)

And I’m going to round today’s piece off with a quick look at our jockey Jason Watson. The reason for this is that some jockeys just “get” a certain track (like Messrs Bishop, Dettori, Norton & de Sousa at Epsom for example) and Jason has done far better in short distance races here at Brighton in comparison with his overall stats.

He’s still learning his trade, of course, bit of a career record reading 144/1013 (14.22% SR) for a small loss of 33.76pts (-3.33% ROI), he’s actually 11 from 27 (40.7% SR) for 39.7pts (+147.1% ROI) in Flat handicaps over 5.5 to 6 furlongs here at Brighton, of which he’s 4 from 9 (44.4%) for 19.9pts (+221.2%) since riding out his claim last October…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Shamshon @ 13/2 or 11/2 BOG from Bet365 / Sky respectively, whilst 5/1 BOG was offered by a whole host of firms at 5.25pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 2.15 Brighton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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