Stat of the Day, 27th June 2019

Wednesday’s pick was…

4.10 Ffos Las : Gone Platinum @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 15/8 (Held up in rear, headway off last bend, went 2nd after 2 out, soon switched right, hanging left flat, no impression on winner, who was originally a very short priced fav!)

Thursday’s pick runs in the…

3.30 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Tammooz @ 3/1 BOG

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…in a 6-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 3yo over 1m4½f on Tapeta worth £3817 to the winner… 

Why?

Well, every afternoon prior to putting a selection up, I create a shortlist of possibles based on various reports and/or databases. One place I derive the possibles from is the Geegeez Report Suite. I have my own parameters set within the Report Angles Settings section and each day it generates a daily Angles Report and this horse was flagged up several times on that report.

On my “shortlist” for this race, this horse had the following abbreviations next to it… JF30 / TF14 / TF30 / TJ365 / TJC5 and here’s how they led me to backing Tammooz…

JF30 : Jockey Andrea Atzeni is 12 from 58 (20.7% SR) for 37.4pts (+64.5% ROI) over the last 30 days, from which he is 6/31 (19.4%) for 3.8pts (+12.3%) for trainer Roger Varian.

TF14 : Roger Varian’s horses have won 11 of 40 (27.5% SR) for 6.12pts (+15.3% ROI) over the last 14 days, including 10 from 19 (52.6%) for 18.5pts (+97.4%) at odds of 4/1 and shorter.

TF30 : Whilst over the last 30 days, his runners are 15/70 (21.4% SR) for 2.75pts (+3.93% ROI), including 13 from 38 (34.2%) for 13.67pts (+36%) at odds of 4/1 and shorter.

This shows that the first half of the last month was decent enough, but the yard’s form has improved further over the last two weeks.

TJ365 : Over the last year, the Atzeni/Varian combination has 53 winners from 226 (23.5% SR) for level stakes profits of 60.7pts (+26.9% ROI), from which…

  • 18/53 (34%) for 23.2pts (+43.7%) on the A/W
  • 20/51 (39.2%) for 20.4pts (+40%) at Class 5
  • and 13/29 (44.8%) for 19pts (+65.3%) at Class 5 on the A/W

And finally TJC5 : The trainer/jockey combo are 7/17 (41.2% SR) for 15.9pts (+93.6% ROI) on the A/W here at Newcastle over the last 5 years (last three years here, of course, for obvious reasons) with Andrea riding a third of all Roger’s winners on this track from less than 19% of hos runners and this 7/17 stat includes…

  • 5/11 (45.5%) for 16.2pts (+147.3%) with 3 yr olds
  • 4/8 (50%) for 9.18pts (+14.7%) at Class 5
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 9.36pts (+468%) over this 1m4½f course and distance (both were 3 yr olds at Class 5!) 

The keener-eyed amongst will no doubt have noticed that most of the above would also point to Daring Venture (currently 5/2 BOG in the 1.50 race) and I wouldn’t necessarily dissuade you from backing that one…

…but my preference is… a 1pt win bet on Tammooz @ 3/1 BOG as offered by Bet365, Betway, BetVictor & Hills at 7.00pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 3.30 Newcastle

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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