Stat of the Day, 28th June 2019

Thursday’s pick was…

3.30 Newcastle : Tammooz @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 11/4 (Tracked leaders, driven to chase leader 2f out, ridden over 1f out, kept on same pace, no impression in 3rd inside final furlong)

Friday’s pick runs in the…

2.00 Yarmouth :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Scale Force @ 7/2 BOG

…in an 8-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 5f on Good ground worth £3752 to the winner… 

Why?

Here we have a 3 yr old gelding making his ninth start and although he doesn’t win as often as his handlers would like (just 1 from 8 so far), he does tend to be there or thereabouts in most contests, having made the frame five times so far and was a runner-up narrowly beaten by a neck at Wolverhampton last time out. That was just four days ago when he was collared and headed late on by a previous Wolverhampton course and distance winner.

Of his eight runs so far, he has three runner-up finishes from four handicap runs and has finished 222 in his three starts in a Class 5 handicap. He actually has one win and four places from five efforts in this grade (31222) and was placed in his only previous run here at Yarmouth (also over this C&D), he was placed in his only run under today’s jockey, 7lb claimer Cieren Fallon and was also placed on his only previous effort after less than a week’s rest.

His trainer, Gay Kelleway has the green TC1 icon next to her name on the racecard, signifying her 4 from 18 (22.2% SR) record here at this track over the last year, but going back further we can see that she has consistently done quite well in lower grade handicaps here. The vast majority of horses I back (generally, not just on SotD) are in the 9/4 to 12/1 range and at these kind of odds, Gay’s Class 5 & 6 handicappers are 10 from 57 (17.5% SR) for 30.2pts (+53% ROI) since 2010. So, not a lot of runners but a nice profitable niche that includes of relevance today…

  • 8/35 (22.9%) for 23.2pts (+66.3%) in the June-August period
  • 7/26 (26.9%) for 29.1pts (+112.1%) from male runners
  • 7/38 (18.4%) for 26.53pts (+69.8%) after less than three weeks rest
  • 7/38 (18.4%) for 18.38pts (+48.4%) since 2014
  • 5/20 (25%) for 18.6pts (+93%) from 3 yr olds
  • 5/21 (23.8%) for 23.4pts (+111.4%) finished 2nd or 3rd LTO
  • 5/32 (15.6%) for 6.59pts (+20.6%) with no previous handicap win
  • 3/6 (50%) for 22.03pts (+367.2%) over this 5f C&D
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 21.45pts (+268.1%) off a mark (OR) of 70
  • and 3/12 (25%) for 6.18pts (+51.5%) in 3 yo only races

And with Scale Force being turned out quite quickly after his last run, it’s possibly worth knowing that since 2016, Gay Kelleway’s runners turned out just 4-10 days after their last run are 20 from 133 (15% SR) for 138.2pts (+103.9% ROI), which is in stark contrast to her record with all her other runners in this period (7.2% SR and a loss of 33.9% of all stakes) and from those 133 quickly-turned out runners…

  • those racing over 5f to 1m are 16/96 (16.6%) for 116.9pts (+121.8%)
  • males are 12/76 (15.8%) for 121.9pts (+160.4%)
  • and 3 yr olds are 8/48 (16.6%) for 118.6pts (+247%)

…whilst 3 yr old males racing over 5f to 1m are 6 from 27 (22.2% SR) for 114.2pts (+422.9% ROI), with those ridden by a claiming jockey winning 4 of 17 (23.5%) for 115.9pts (+681.9%)…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Scale Force @ 7/2 BOG as offered by pretty much everyone at 6.50pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 2.00 Yarmouth

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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