Sat TV Trends: 29th June 2019

The Northumberland Plate, one of the richest staying handicaps, takes centre stage at Newcastle racecourse, while the ITV cameras also head to Newmarket and York. Plus, as an extra bonus – it’s also Irish Derby Day over at the Curragh!!

As always, we’ve got all the LIVE races covered from a trends and stats angle – use these to help narrow down the field and find the best profiles of past winners.

 

Saturday 29th June 2019

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV and RUK)

2.05 – Randox Health Empress Fillies’ Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies) Cl1 6f ITV

17/17 – Never raced at the track before
15/17 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
14/17 – Had won over either 5 or 6f before
13/17 – Won by either a Feb or March foal
10/17 – Had either 2 or 3 previous runs
10/17 – Didn’t win their previous race
8/17 – Came from stall 4 or lower
6/17 – Winning favourites
5/17 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time (2 Albany, 3 Queen Mary)
4/17 – Trained by the Hannon yard
2/17 – Trained by Richard Fahey
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/1

3.15 – Randox Health Criterion Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 7f ITV4

15/17 – Won over 7f before
15/17 – Had won a Listed (or better) class race before
15/17 – Had at least 1 run already that season
13/17 – Aged 5 or younger
11/17 – Finished unplaced last time out
10/17 – Priced 6/1 or bigger in the betting
9/17 – Came from stall 3 or lower
8/17 – Unplaced favourites
5/17 – Winning favourites
4/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
3/17 – Trained by Richard Hannon (3 of last 8 runnings)
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 13/2

Newcastle Horse Racing Trends (ATR/ITV)

1.50 – Betfair Handicap Cl2 6f ITV

16/17 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
16/17 – Aged 6 or younger
14/17 – Had won over 6f before
12/17 – Had won between 1-4 times before
11/17 – Finished unplaced last time out
11/17 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
11/17 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
11/17 – Carried 9-0 or more
10/17 – Rated 90 or less
9/17 – Aged 4 years-old
9/17 – Had raced within the last 2 weeks
8/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
7/17 – Had run at Newcastle before
3/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
3/17 – Won last time out
2/17 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/17 – Ran at York last time out
2/17 – Trained by Tim Easterby
13 of the last 15 winners came from stall 7 or HIGHER
8 of the last 15 winners came between stalls 10-15

2.25 – Betfair Exchange Chipchase Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 6f ITV

16/17 – Had won over 6f before
15/17 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
14/17 – Unplaced last time out
13/17 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
12/17 – Has raced within the last 4 weeks
12/17 – Yet to win a Group race
10/17 – Placed favourites
9/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/17 – Had won at least 4 times before
8/17 – Aged 5 or older
7/17 – Ran at Ascot last time out
5/17 – Had run at Newcastle before
5/17 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/17 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan
2/17 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/17 – Won last time out
10 of the last 16 winners came between stalls 1-5
Above The Rest (12/1) won the race 12 months ago
Just 2 winners from stall 1 in the last 15 runnings (and only 4 horses placed)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/1

3.00 – Betfair Exchange Northumberland Vase Handicap (Consolation Race for the John Smith´s Northumberland Plate) Cl2 2m56y ITV

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Three previous runnings
Cosmeli won the race in 2018
3/3 – Carried 9-7, 9-8 and 9-9 in weight
3/3 – Ran in the last 2 months
3/3 – Winners came from stalls 11-19 (inc)
2/3 – Won last time out
2/3 – Had run at Newcastle (flat) before
The average winning SP in the last 3 runnings is 13/1

3.35 – Betfair Exchange Northumberland Plate (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 2m19y ITV4

Past Northumberland Plate Winners

2018 –  Withhold (5/1 fav)
2017 –  Higher Power (11/2)
2016 – Antiquarium (16/1)
2015 – Quest For More (15/2)
2014 – Angel Gabrial (4/1 fav)
2013 – Tominator (8/1)
2012 – Ile de Re (5/2 fav)
2011 – Tominator (25/1)
2010 – Overturn (14/1)
2009 – Som Tala (16/1)
2008 – Arc Bleu (14/1)
2007 – Juniper Girl (5/1 fav)
2006 – Toldo (33/1)
2005 – Sergeant Cecil (14/1)
2004 – Mirjan (33/1)
2003 – Unleash (10/1)
2002 – Bangalore (8/1)

Key Northumberland Plate Trends

16/17  – Had won over at least 1m4f before on the flat
16/17 – Finished fifth or better last time out
15/17 – Came from stall 14 or lower
15/17 – Aged 6 or younger
13/17 – Had won over at least 1m6f before on the flat
13/17 – Finished in the top three in their previous race
10/17 – Carried 8-12 or less
9/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/17 – Had at least 2 turf flat runs already that season
6/17 – Won by a National Hunt yard
5/17 – Won their previous race
4/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Ran at Haydock last time out (inc 3 of the last 11 winners)
3/17 – Had won on the flat at Newcastle before
2/17 – Trained by Donald McCain
2/17 – Trained by Roger Charlton (2 of last 4)
1/17 – Won by a previous winner of the race
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 13/1
Note: The 2016, 2017 & 2018 running was staged on the All Weather track at Newcastle

Other Northumberland Plate Facts

No horse older than 8 has won the race since 1985
Five of the last 13 winners ran at either Ascot or Haydock last time out
Nine winning favourites (1 joint) since 1985, including 3 of the last 7
Paul Cole trained the winner in 1997, 1998 & 2001

York Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV)

2.45 Summer Music Saturday Handicap Cl2  (3yo+ 0-105) 6f ITV4

No previous runnings
Trainer Kevin Ryan is just 3 from 112 with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Michael Easterby is just 5 from 127 with his 4+ year-olds at the track

Curragh Horse Racing Trends (ATR)

5.20 – Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Filies) 1m4f

Recent Irish Derby Winners

2018 – LATROBE (14/1)
2017 – CAPRI (6/1)
2016 – HARZAND (4/6 fav)
2015 – JACK HOBBS (10/11 fav)
2014 – AUSTRALIA (1/8 fav)
2013 – TRADING LEATHER (6/1)
2012 – CAMELOT  (1/5 fav)
2011 – TREASURE BEACH (7/2)
2010 – CAPE BLANCO (7/2)
2009 – FAME AND GLORY (8/11 fav)
2008 – FROZEN FIRE (16/1)
2007 – SOLDIER OF FORTUNE (5/1)
2006 – DYLAN THOMAS (9/2 fav)
2005 – HURRICANE RUN (4/5 fav)
2004 – GREY SWALLOW (10/1)
2003 – ALAMSHAR  (4/1)

Key Irish Derby Betting Trends and Stats

16/16 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
14/16 – Won by an Irish-based yard
13/16 – Had 3 or more wins in their career
14/16 – Favourites that were placed in the top 4
13/16 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Won a Group race before
13/16 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
12/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/16 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
11/16 – Failed to win their last race
11/16 – Ran in the Epsom Derby last time out
10/16 – Had never raced at the Curragh before
9/16 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (won it 12 times in all)
7/16 – Placed in the Epsom Derby (3 winners, Harzand, Australia & Camelot)
4/16 – Previous Group 1 winners
3/16 – Ridden by Seamie Heffernan
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 9/2

 

 

 

 

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