Stat of the Day, 29th June 2019

Friday’s pick was…

2.00 Yarmouth : Scale Force @ 7/2 BOG 7th at 3/1 (Led, ridden and headed over 1f out, weakened final furlong)

Saturday’s pick runs in the…

4.20 Chester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Super Kid @ 3/1 BOG

…in a 9-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4½f on Good ground worth £6404 to the winner… 

Why?

Here we have a 7 yr old gelding who was a course and distance winner last time out a fortnight ago taking his career tally to 4 wins from 34. This, admittedly, isn’t a great record, but his four wins do include…

  • all 4 in fields of 6-12 runners
  • all 4 going left handed
  • 3 in June/July
  • 2 at 1m4f/1m4.5f
  • 2 at Class 4
  • 2 wearing a tongue tie
  • 1 here at Chester (that LTO C&D win)

His trainer Tim Easterby is no stranger to this track and its winners enclosure either, saddling up 12 winners from 69 handicaps (17.4% SR) here over the last three (inc. the one) seasons that have rewarded punters with 34.7pts (+50.3% ROI) profit backed blindly, which isn’t a bad starting point.

Refinements to the above available today include…

  • 12/62 (19.4%) for 41.68pts (+67.2%) in fields of 7-13 runners
  • 10/62 (16.1%) for 32.7pts (+52.8%) from male runners
  • 9/25 (36%) for 34.18pts (+136.7%) at odds of 2/1 to 7/1
  • 8/34 (23.5%) for 42.98pts (+126.4%) at 6-15 days since last run
  • 8/42 (19.1%) for 19.3pts (+46%) from 4-7 yr olds
  • 6/29 (20.7%) for 31.24pts (+107.7%) at Class 4
  • 5/21 (23.8%) for 20.98pts (+99.9%) in June/July
  • 5/27 (18.5%) for 20.76pts (+76.9%) off a mark (OR) of 70-80
  • 3/10 (30%) for 16.84pts (+168.4%) in June
  • and 2/8 (25%) for 7.11pts (+88.9%) from those with 1 previous C&D success

…whilst males sent off at 2/1 to 7/1 in 7-13 runner handicaps after a break of 10 to 40 days are 6/10 (60% SR) for 34.49pts (+344.9% ROI)…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Super Kid @ 3/1 BOG as offered by Bet365, Betfair & Paddy Power at 6.45pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 4.20 Chester

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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