Stat of the Day, 1st July 2019

Saturday’s pick was…

4.20 Chester : Super Kid @ 3/1 BOG non-runner 

Monday’s pick runs in the…

7.45 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Embour @ 10/3 BOG

…in an 8-runner, Class 2, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Good To Firm ground worth £12450 to the winner…

Why?…

This 4 yr old gelding arrives here in decent enough form having 2 wins and 2 places from his last 5 starts taking his overall career record to a very respectable 7 places from 13 (53.8% SR), including 5 wins (38.5%), including of relevance today…

• 4 wins, 2 places from 10 on a straight track
• 4 wins, 2 places from 9 at odds shorter than 6/1
• 4 wins, 1 place from 7 in fields of 6-9 runners
• 4 wins, 1 place from 8 over 6 furlongs
• 3 wins from 3 under jockey Sean Levey
• 3 wins from 3 at odds shorter than 9/2
• 3 wins from 5 in Class 2 races worth less than £20,000
• 3 wins, 1 place from 7 over a straight 6f
• and 2 wins, 1 place from 5 on Good to Firm ground

Jockey Sean Levey now attempts to defend his 100% record on this horse and also aims to add to his impressive 70 winners from 480 (14.6% SR) rides for Richard Hannon on the Flat over the last three (inc. this one) seasons which have generated level stakes profits of 155.7pts at betfair SP at an ROI of 32.5% and these include 16 from 97 (16.5%) over 6f and 10/57 (17.5%) here at Windsor…

…whilst trainer Richard Hannon himself has been no slouch around this venue, accruing 23 winners from 156 (14.7% SR) in handicaps on this track over the past five (inc. this one, of course) seasons. Followers of such runners have been able to avail themselves of 56.5pts profit at betfair SP, a figure equivalent to some 36.2% of all stakes invested.

From this 23/156 record of interest/relevance today, we have…

• 22/138 (15.9%) for 61pts (+44.2%) over 6f to 11.5f
• 19/120 (15.8%) for 64.4pts (+53.7%) from male runners
• 15/60 (25%) for 22.8pts (+37.9%) at odds of 9/4 to 6/1
• 11/57 (19.3%) for 45.5pts (+79.9%) on Good to Firm
• 11/57 (19.3%) for 16.5pts (+28.9%) with a top 3 finish LTO
• 9/41 (22%) for 43.1pts (+105%) with Sean Levey in the saddle
• and 7/41 (17.1%) for 21.6pts (+52.7%) from those turned back out after less than a fortnight’s rest

…whilst males at 9/4 to 6/1 over 6 to 8.5 furlongs are 9/29 (31% SR) for 23.1pts (+79.7% ROI) profit, including 7/18 (38.9%) with a top 3 finish LTO, 4/9 (44.4%) under Sean Levey and 3/10 (30%) after less than a fortnight’s rest…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Embour @ 10/3 BOG as offered by most firms at 5.15pm on Sunday, although slightly better was available at Bet365. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 7.45 Windsor

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!