Stat of the Day, 2nd July 2019

Monday’s pick was…

7.45 Windsor : Embour @ 10/3 BOG WON at 7/2 (Raced keenly, tracked leaders on inside, ridden to lead inside final furlong, ran on well to win by half a length)

Tuesday’s pick runs in the…

2.30 Brighton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Kachumba @ 7/2 BOG

…in a 10-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on Good To Firm ground worth £2782 to the winner…

Why?

This 4 yr old filly was third last time out, when beaten by just a length here over course and distance in a Class 5 handicap five weeks ago. Whilst she was resting, the winner of that race stepped up to Class 4 and won again, so her rest allied to a one pound easing in the weights and a drop in class would suggest that a similar effort should be enough to land her yet another win on a track she seems to love.

She has 4 wins and a place from 13 efforts in Flat handicaps so far, which is better than most at this level, and with today’s contest in mind, those 13 runs have produced…

  • 4 wins, 1 place from 9 when sent off at 6/1 or shorter
  • 4 wins from 8 off a mark (OR) lower than the 68 she ran off LTO
  • 4 from 8 on Good to Firm
  • 3 from 6 here at Brighton
  • 2 from 4 at Class 6
  • and 1 from 1 under today’s jockey Dane O’Neill

Her trainer, Rae Guest, doesn’t actually send that many runners here. Whether it’s the 250-mile round trip in usually heavy traffic or some other reason, I doubt it’s down to a lack of success as since 2011, those that have come here and have run at odds of 10/1 or shorter are 10 from 32 (31.25% SR) for 15.44pts (+48.25% ROI) profit with the following angles at play today…

  • Over 6f to 1m : 9/17 (52.9%) for 26.01pts (+153%)
  • Rae’s only runner at the venue on the day : 9/25 (36%) for 17.64pts (+70.6%)
  • Females : 8/30 (26.7%) for 13.05pts (+43.5%)
  • 16-45 days since last run : 7/16 (43.75%) for 19.28pts (+120.5%)
  • On Good to Firm : 6/16 (37.5%) for 18.21pts (+113.8%)
  • In handicaps : 6/27 (22.2%) for 8.08pts (+29.9%)
  • And since 2016 : 5/13 (38.5%) for 9.41pts (+72.4%)

…from which…Females racing over 6f to 1m on Good to Firm ground 16-45 days after their last race and were Rae Guest’s only runner at Brighton on the day have won 5 of 7 (71.4% SR) for 22.8pts (+325.6% ROI) profit, including 3 from 5 (60%) for 18.68pts (+373.6%) in handicaps…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Kachumba @ 7/2 BOG as offered by Bet365 & Betway at 5.45pm on Monday with plenty of 10/3 BOG knocking about. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 2.30 Brighton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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