Stat of the Day, 3rd July 2019

Tuesday’s pick was…

2.30 Brighton : Kachumba @ 7/2 BOG 8th at 4/1 (Dwelt close up, ridden over 1f out, weakened final furlong : very disppointing effort IMO-Chris)

Wednesday’s pick runs in the…

5.40 Thirsk :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Atletico @ 5/1 BOG

…in a 14-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Good To Firm ground worth £4399 to the winner…

Why?

Well, I generally don’t get too involved in the bigger-field handicaps (at any level), as they often prove too open/competitive, but with only two runners coming here with any discernible recent form, I think I’ve found an opportunity for us.

The two runners in question actually met here over course and distance back in April, when our boy was the runner-up, 1.25 lengths behind the re-opposing Thornaby Nash, who certainly had a clearer run than Atletico that day. Our selection here is now some 8lbs better off which under normal circumstances should be more than enough to reverse the placings.

Atletico has ran three more times since that runner-up finish, coming home 3rd, 3rd and then 2nd again over this trip last time out, but that was at Chelmsford in a Class 3 handicap and he now drops 2 classes and his turf mark (OR) is a full 12lbs lower than his A/W rating.

After all the above “circumstantial evidence”, I’m keeping it simple with the numbers.

Once again we have a trainer, who doesn’t send many to the selected track, but does more than well enough with the ones he sends here. In David Evans’ defence the near 500-mile/9 hour round trip from Monmouthshire is a more than valid excuse, but since 2015, the 22 runners he has brought here have yielded 6 winners (27.3% SR) and 38.4pts (+174.6% ROI) profit at betfair SP and amongst that 6 from 22 record, the following are applicable/of relevance today…

  • 6/16 (37.5%) for 44.4pts (+277.6%) from those who last raced 1 week to 1 month ago
  • 6/17 (35.3%) for 43.4pts (+255.4%) over 6/7 furlongs
  • 5/17 (29.4%) for 35.5pts (+208.9%) off a mark (OR) lower than 70
  • 4/10 (40%) for 33.6pts (+336%) in July
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 5.49pts (+45.8%) sent off at Evens to 6/1
  • 4/14 (28.6%) for 13.1pts (+93.4%) from male runners
  • 3/4 (75%) for 9.26pts (+231.5%) from LTO runners-up
  • and 3/8 (37.5%) for 27.7pts (+346.1%) over this 7f C&D

…from which…those racing off a mark lower than 70 over trips of 6/7 furlongs after a break of 7-30 days are 5 from 11 (45.6% SR) for 41.5pts (+377.4% ROI) and this includes 3 winners and 2 runners-up from 6 over this 7f course and distance…

..giving us… a 1pt win bet on Atletico @ 5/1 BOG as offered by pretty much everyone at 5.50pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 5.40 Thirsk

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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