Stat of the Day, 4th July 2019

Wednesday’s pick was…

5.40 Thirsk : Atletico @ 5/1 BOG 4th at 9/2 (Mid-division, driven over 2f out, ridden and stayed on to chase leaders inside final furlong, no impression)

Thursday’s pick runs in the…

3.30 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Tukhoom @ 7/2 BOG

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…in a 13-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Good To Firm ground worth £4852 to the winner…

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding has finished 2331 in his last four outings, all at this Class 5 grade and over trips of 7 to 8.5 furlongs. He was a comfortable 4 lengths winner in 16-runner field last time out, 13 days ago and now makes his yard debut for David O’Meara.

You wouldn’t need to be too clued up about racing to guess/assume that Danny Tudhope will be in the saddle today and the trainer/jockey partnership continues to churn out winners. This is a tried and tested partnership and their success has been well documented by myself and many others, so I won’t delve too deeply there today (I hear a collective sigh of relief from the readers).

Both rider and handler come here in great form, Danny of course had a great Royal Ascot and whilst his 30-day stats are impressive at 28 from 107 (26.2% SR), his form has improved further more recently with 15 winners from 49 (30.6%) over the past fortnight rising to 12/28 (42.9%) in the past week : here is a man at the top of his game.

Mr O’Meara, unsurprisingly, also continues to clock up the winners and whilst not quite as spectacular as his jockey, an 8 from 35 (22.9% SR) record over the past week isn’t to be sniffed at. This invariably means that they’ve partnered up well of late and over the last three weeks alone the combo is 5 from 16 (31.25% SR) for 5.17pts (+32.3% ROI) with horses sent off at Evens to 9/2, which is where we should be today.

The only surprise to me about the partnership is that it’s still profitable to follow. I expect this won’t last for too much longer and we’ll need to look for niche angles to exploit the market (thankfully, that’s how I work!).

Now, it’s worth knowing (if not concentrating on) the fact that David O’Meara’s runners who won LTO are 36 from 202 (17.8%) on the Flat over the last 3 (inc. this one) seasons, but as he’s only had this horse for less than a fortnight, it’s probably more relevant to look at how he fares with new arrivals to the yard and they are 24 from 220 (10.9% SR) for 175.9pts (+79.9% ROI) since the start of 2017.

That strike rate might not look the best, but as a starting point for blind backing, 1 in 10 isn’t bad at all for new recruits to a yard. Obviously we want to see better numbers than that, so the following logical angles can be applied today, as from those 220 newbies…

  • 20/154 (13%) for 182.5pts (+118.5%) from male runners
  • 18/129 (14%) for 233.9pts (+181.3%) from April to July
  • 13/79 (16.9%) for 139.4pts (+176.4%) with Danny Tudhope aboard
  • 12/113 (10.6%) for 125.3pts (+110.9%) at Class 5
  • 8/72 (11.1%) for 89pts (+123.6%) in handicaps
  • and 4/31 (12.9%) for 15.4pts (+49.7%) from horses in David’s care for less than two months

…from which, here’s one of those niche angles we’re likely to need going forward…

…David O’Meara’s new male recruits ridden by Danny Tudhope in April-July (simple enough, isn’t it?) are 10/39 (25.6% SR) for 164.4pts (+421.4% ROI) over the last three years, including 7/27 (25.9%) for 86.1pts (+318.8%) at Classes 4-6.

…pointing to… a 1pt win bet on Tukhoom @ 7/2 BOG as offered by pretty much everyone at 5.50pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 3.30 Haydock

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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