Stat of the Day, 5th July 2019

Thursday’s pick was…

3.30 Haydock : Tukhoom @ 7/2 BOG 5th at 11/4 (Went left and bumped start, chased leaders, 2nd entering final 5f, ridden and every chance 2f out, hung left soon after, lost 2nd inside final furlong, weakened towards finish)

Friday’s pick runs in the…

6.00 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Tarseekh @ 4/1 BOG

…in a 14-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on Polytrack worth £3493 to the winner…


Well, it’s sign of how tough stat-based punting is right now, when I’m drawn into a third consecutive biggish-field, low-grade 7f handicap, but hopefully the numbers will be in our favour this evening with a 6 yr old gelding who has been running consistently well of late, which is about as much as you expect/hope for at this level, with a 1442 record in his last four efforts over course and distance.

That run of form suggests he both “gets” and likes the track here at Chelmsford, which has been a happy hunting ground for trainer Charlie Wallis. This is starkly highlighted by looking at the performance of all Jack’s handicappers since the start of 2016, where 54 winners from 535 (10.1% SR) for a loss of 91.2pts (17.1% of all stakes) at betfair SP (even worse at ISP, obviously) isn’t anything to shout from the rooftops about…

…yet 42.6% of all those winners have come from 28.4% of the runners when looking solely at his record here at Chelmsford, which currently stands at a more than acceptable 23/152 (15.1% SR) for 50.5pts (+33.4% ROI), from which…

  • 22/127 (17.3%) for 63.5pts (+50.4%) at 3-45 dslr
  • 19/74 (25.7%) for 39.3pts (+53.1%) at odds of 6/4 to 8/1 – actually not a bad angle to pick, if you only wanted one.
  • 18/104 (17.3%) for 52.4pts (+50.4%) at 5-7yo
  • 15/86 (17.4%) for 31.2pts (+36.2%) at Class 6/7
  • 12/73 (16.4%) for 17.7pts (+24.2%) at Class 6
  • 8/45 (17.8%) for 28.7pts (+65.3%) in 2019
  • 6/37 (16.2%) for 6.8pts (+18.4%) at 6yo
  • and 1/1 (100%) for 4pts (+400%) with Jack Mitchell in the saddle

…and a micro based around the above categories? Well, those aged 4 or older sent off at 6/4 to 12/1 in a Class 6/7 handicap after a break of just 3-16 days are 11/26 (42.3%) for 48.7pts (+187.4% ROI), which might be a little too specific for some of you…

…but it does give us… a 1pt win bet on Tarseekh @ 4/1 BOG as offered by Bet365 & SkyBet at 6.35pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 6.00 Chelmsford

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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