Stat of the Day, 8th July 2019

Saturday’s pick was…

4.10 Sandown : Magical Wish @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 7/4 (Tracked leading pair on inside, pushed along over 2f out, went 2nd inside final furlong, hard ridden and stayed on towards finish, not quite pace to challenge, beaten by a neck)

Monday’s pick runs in the…

8.40 Ripon :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Fairy Fast @ 5/1 BOG

…in a 14-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 6f on Good To Firm worth £3752 to the winner…


Yes, another David O’Meara trained horse ridden by Danny Tudhope, but from a different perspective today. Danny is still riding really well clocking up the winners and both he and David have good records here at Ripon individually and also as a partnership (31/145 = 21.4% SR) for 71.8pts @ 49.5% ROI in handicaps here), but I said enough about the partnership last week, so I’m not delving into that stat today, although it does remain a very valid starting point!

Instead I’m going to focus on the form of this 3 yr old filly and share a saved micro-system based on a quirk of results. Let me explain : this filly won here over course and distance four starts ago and her form since then reads 222, culminating in a two length-defeat at Thirsk five weeks ago when staying on strongest over 5f.

She’s now back up in trip to her last winning distance and that run also qualifies her for a micro of mine, simply labelled “2-2-2” which basically highlights horses who finished as runner-up in each of their last three runs. The only restrictions imposed are that they need to be running in a UK Class 2 to 5 contest, 6-45 days after a defeat by a neck to 10 lengths.

Since the start of 2016, I’ve had 461 qualifiers yielding 116 winners (25.2% SR) and 91.8pts profit at an ROI of 19.9%. I appreciate you might not want 10-12 qualifiers per month from one angle, so the following filters are applicable today…

  • 84/316 (26.6%) for 139.1pts (+44%) in fields of 7-14 runners
  • 72/326 (22.1%) for 65.5pts (+20.1%) in handicaps
  • 71/330 (21.5%) for 98.3pts (+29.8%) at odds of 15/8 to 11/1
  • 50/170 (29.4%) for 35.1pts (+20.6%) on the Flat
  • 46/153 (30.1%) for 33.7pts (+22%) at Class 5
  • 33/112 (29.5%) for 36.3pts (+32.4%) from female runners
  • 21/66 (31.8%) for 28pts (+42.4%) on Good to Firm ground
  • 20/73 (27.4%) for 55.9pts (+76.6%) at 31-45 dslr
  • 20/90 (22.2%) for 36.2pts (+40.2%) stepping up in trip by 0.5 to 1 furlong
  • and 18/41 (43.9%) for 44.7pts (+109.1%) in July

…and from the above and relevant today… at odds of 15/8 to 11/1 in 7-14 runner Flat handicaps = 24 from 75 (32% SR) for 64.5pts (+86% ROI) and these include…

  • 11/28 (39.3%) for 27.5pts (+98.3%) at Class 5
  • 8/22 (36.4%) for 36.5pts (+166%) from females
  • and 5/12 941.7%) for 17.8pts (+148.4%) from Class 5 females…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Fairy Fast @ 5/1 BOG as offered by BetVictor & Hills at 5.05pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 8.40 Ripon

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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