Stat of the Day, 11th July 2019

Wednesday’s pick was…

3.20 Yarmouth : Soloist @ 7/2 BOG 7th at 9/2 (Raced wide close up, pushed along over 3f out, ridden 2f out, weakened final furlong

Thursday’s pick runs in the…

2.25 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Guildsman @ 7/2 BOG

…in the 8-runner, Group 2, Tattersalls July Stakes for 2yo over 6f on Good To Firm worth £45368 to the winner… 

Why?

As one of my rare forays to Group racing (and an even rarer 2yo pick), I’m looking to this 2yr old Colt who won very comfortably on debut, winning by 6 lengths over this 6f trip at Goodwood, ahead of a very good 3rd of 17 runners in the Group 2 Coventry Stakes over 6f 23 days ago.

He was only half a length off the winner Arizona that day and it’s worth knowing that the last six horses to run in this race directly after making the frame in the Coventry have finished 233221 here, so it’s a useful guide.

As with this colt’s previous two runs, Oisin Murphy is in the saddle and the trip is 6f, so there’s some continuity there.

Stat-wise, I’m always interested to see trainer Archie Watson’s late season 2 yr olds, especially those racing on the Flat over 5f to 10f. Since 2016, during the months of July to October, such runners sent off at odds of Evens to 15/2 within 60 days of their last run are 22 from 56 (39.3% SR) for 36.25pts (+64.7% ROI), from which the following dozen angles are applicable/relevant today…

  • 19/41 (46.3%) for 43.56pts (+106.2%) with fewer than 5 previous runs
  • 14/36 (38.9%) for 14.16pts (+39.3%) in non-hcps
  • 13/24 (54.2%) for 35.32pts (+147.2%) over 6f
  • 11/21 (52.4%) for 21.23pts (+101.1%) at 16-25 days since last run
  • 9/22 (40.9%) for 5.05pts (+23%) from male runners
  • 9/23 (39.1%) for 11.9pts (+51.7%) at the same class as LTO
  • 7/15 (46.7%) for 15.2pts (+101.3%) in July
  • 6/12 (50%) for 16.55pts (+137.9%) on Good to Firm ground
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 18.62pts (+206.9%) with Oisin Murphy aboard
  • 3/4 (75%) for 18.38pts (+459.5%) who ran in a Group race LTO
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 14.29pts (+476.2%) ran at Gr 2 LTO
  • and 1/1 (100%) for 4.09pts (+409%) in Gr 2 races…

…from which… those with fewer than five previous outings now racing over 6f in non-handicaps after a break of 16-25 days are 5 from 6 (83.3% SR) for 12.18pts (+203% ROI)…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Guildsman @ 7/2 BOG as offered by pretty much everyone and his dog at 6.00pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 2.25 Newmarket

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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