Stat of the Day, 12th July 2019

Thursday’s pick was…

2.25 Newmarket : Guildsman @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 7/2 (Mid-division, ridden over 1f out, kept on and no impression

Friday’s pick runs in the…

6.10 Ffos Las :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Pink Eyed Pedro @ 7/2

…in a 6-runner, Class 4, Novices Handicap Chase  for 4yo+ over 2m5f on Good To Firm worth £6758 to the winner… 


This 8 yr old gelding has 2 wins and a place from his last four outings and was a comfortable 10-lengths winner last time out when scoring over hurdles on Monday.

He now reverts to chasing, but I’ve no fears about that, as he’s already won over fences this year and he actually had 10 wins and 6 places from 20 runs in point to point contests.

Jockey Connor Brace once again takes the ride and claims his usual 5lbs allowance and he comes here in good nick, having won 3 of his 7 outings over the past week and finishing as a runner-up in two of them, whilst trainer David Brace has also fared well, with three winners from four over the past month.

With just four runners over the past month, it’s clear that David hasn’t got the largest string of horses at his disposal. In fact, since the start of 2018, he has been represented by just eight different runners (all male), but between them they have won 5 of 28 (17.9% SR) races for level stakes profits of 14.34pts (+51.2% ROI), including of relevance today…

  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 26.34pts (+164.6%) at odds of 12/1 and shorter
  • 4/21 (19.1%) for 17.39pts (+82.8%) under Connor Brace
  • 4/10 (40%) for 28.39pts (+283.9%) in June/July
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 6.78pts (+96.9%) from 8 yr olds
  • 3/6 (50%) for 7.78pts (+129.7%) at odds shorter than 5/1
  • 2/10 (20%) for 7.24pts (+72.4%) at Class 4
  • 2/8 (25%) for 9.24pts (+115.5%) after less than 3 weeks rest
  • 2/2 (100%) for 17.91pts (+895.5%) in July
  • and 1/3 (33.3%) for 9.94pts (+331.4%) here at Ffos Las…

…and when Connor has ridden one sent off at 12/1 or shorter in June/July : 4 from 6 (66.6%) for 32.39pts (+539.8%) including 2 from 3 on 8 yr olds…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Pink Eyed Pedro @ 7/2 as offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.50pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 6.10 Ffos Las

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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