Stat of the Day, 13th July 2019

Friday’s pick was…

6.10 Ffos Las : Pink Eyed Pedro @ 7/2 BOG WON at 7/4 (Tracked clear leader, close up after 5 out, led going well approaching 2 out, shaken up and good jump last, ridden clear flat, stayed on well

Saturday’s pick runs in the…

7.50 Salisbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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El Borracho @ 4/1 BOG

…in a 6-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Firm/Good to Firm ground worth £3806 to the winner…

Why?

This 4 yr old gelding won last time out under today’s jockey Levi Williams, who’ll be hoping to put his 7lb claim to good effect again today. That recent win was 13 days ago at Windsor when staying on best over 1m3.5f and although he has an extra 100 or so yards to go today whilst carrying an extra 2lbs, he does take a drop in class to run here.

He has won 3 times from 11 in Flat handicaps so far, making the frame on two other occasions and of these 11 runs, he has…

  • 3 wins and a place from 5 on a flat track
  • 2 wins and a place from 6 at class 5
  • 2 wins from 4 on good to firm ground
  • a win and a place from 2 here at Salisbury
  • 1 from 2 under Levi Williams
  • and 1 from 1 in July

His trainer, Simon Dow has a good record at getting horses to win consecutive races, as his LTO winners are 21/93 (22.6% SR) for 54.8pts (+59% ROI) in handicaps since 2014 and these include…

  • 19/79 (24%) for 54.8pts (+69.3%) from male runners
  • 17/61 (27.9%) for 61.6pts (+101%) over trips of 7 to 13.5 furlongs
  • 15/45 (33.3%) for 24.8pts (+55%) at odds of 11/2 and shorter
  • 7/30 (23.3%) for 21.2pts (+70.5%) at Class 5

…from which…males racing over 7 to 13.5 furlongs at odds shorter than 6/1 are 11/23 (47.8% SR) for 25.5pts (+110.9% ROI), including 3 from 5 (60%) for 8.88pts (+177.6%) at Class 5…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on El Borracho @ 4/1 BOG as offered by more than half a dozen firms at 6.40pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 7.50 Salisbury

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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