Stat of the Day, 16th July 2019

Monday’s pick was…

8.30 Windsor : Hats Off To Larry @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 7/4 (Chased leading pair, 2nd on inside 3f out, led over 2f out, ridden and headed inside final furlong, stayed on same pace

Tuesday’s pick runs in the…

5.15 Beverley :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Thorntoun Care @ 9/2 BOG

…in an 11-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m2f on Good to Firm ground worth £3105 to the winner…

Why?

Keeping it very simple today with an 8 yr old gelding who’ll hope fully find conditions suit him, as of his 5 Flat wins to date…

  • all 5 were at odds shorter than 6/1
  • 4 came when wearing cheekpieces
  • 4 in June/July
  • 3 on Good to Firm
  • 3 at Class 6
  • and 3 after a short break of 8-15 days

His trainer, Karen Tutty has a decent record here of late with 6 winners from 36 (16.6% SR) in handicaps over the last three seasons generating 42.4pts at an ROI of some 117.7%, from which…

  • after less than 3 weeks rest : 6/26 (23.1%) for 52.4pts (+201.5%)
  • males : 5/29 (17.2%) for 44.2pts (+152.5%)
  • on Good to firm : 4/19 (21.1%) for 32.4pts (+170.5%)
  • in July : 3/10 (30%) for 11.13pts (+111.3%)
  • and at 7/1 or shorter : 3/9 (33.3%) for 12.13pts (+134.7%)

…with males turned back out less than 3 weeks after their last run winning 5 of 23 (21.7% SR) for 50.2pts (+218.4% ROI)…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Thorntoun Care @ 9/2 BOG as offered by more than half a dozen firms at 6.30pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 5.15 Beverley

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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