Tuesday’s pick was…
5.15 Beverley : Thorntoun Care @ 9/2 BOG WON at 9/2 (Held up towards rear, headway over 1f out, ran on to lead last strides)
Wednesday’s pick runs in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Dutch Canyon @ 6/1 BOG
…in a 13-runner, Class 5, Novices Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 3m½f on Good ground worth £2989 to the winner…
This 9 yr old gelding comes here seeking a hat-trick after back to back Class 5 chase wins at Hexham & Cartmel, 32 and 19 days ago respectively, both over trips of 3m½f to 3m1½f under today’s jockey Sam Coltherd who again claims 3lbs.
The Hexham run was his yard debut as he defied a 301 day absence and although now 4lbs higher than LTO, I think he’s still ahead of the assessor and the drop back in trip will help.
He is trained by Stuart Coltherd, one of the trainers I look out for in an angle I blandly named “Summer Chases”. The basic premise is that in UK NH handicap chases during May to August, Stuart’s runners are 8 from 36 (22.2% SR) for 14.01pts (+38.9% ROI) over the last four “summers” (it might be warm now, but I use the term loosely).
36 runners isn’t a huge dataset, but certain angles crop up too regularly for them to be just chance or coincidence, as the 8/36 includes…
- 8/32 (25%) for 18.01pts (+56.3%) from males
- 8/30 (26.7%) for 20.01pts (+66.7%) in races worth less than £6,000
- 7/24 (29.2%) for 21.21pts (+88.4%) at 11-25 days since last run
- 7/23 (30.4%) for 12.32pts (+53.6%) at odds of 9/4 to 5/1
- 6/29 (20.7%) for 0.28pts (+0.95%) ridden by Sam Coltherd
- 6/22 (27.3%) for 17.97pts (+81.7%) at Class 5
- 5/18 (27.8%) for 5.77pts (+32.1%) from 8/9 yr olds
- 5/11 (45.5%) for 14.28pts (+129.8%) at 3m½f to 3m1½f
- 4/12 (33.3%) for 8.06pts (+67.2%) in 2019
- and 2/8 (25%) for 1.22pts (+15.3%) from LTO winners
…whilst males ridden by Sam and sent off at 5/1 or shorter in a race worth less than £6k, some 11-25 days after they last ran = 5 from 9 (55.6% SR) for 15.48pts (+171.9% ROI) and these include 4/7 at Class 5, 4/7 at 3m½f to 3m1½f, 3/5 from 8/9 yr olds, 2/3 from LTO winners and 2/2 in 2019…
…and those racing 3m½f to 3m1½f at Class 5 are 4 from 6 (66.6%) for 14.48pts (+241.4%)…
…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Dutch Canyon @ 6/1 BOG as offered by BetVictor & Hills at 5.35pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!