Stat of the Day, 18th July 2019

Wednesday’s pick was…

2.50 Uttoxeter : Dutch Canyon @ 9/2 BOG PU at 9/2 (Led until before 3rd, not fluent next, weakened before 13th, pulled up before 4 out

Thursday’s pick runs in the…

5.15 Hamilton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Be Bold @ 9/2 BOG

…in a 13-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m½f on Good to Firm ground worth £3493 to the winner…

Why?

Keeping it simple again this morning with a 7 yr old gelding trained by Rebecca Bastiman, whose overall record is decent here at Hamilton with 11 winners from 75 (14.7% SR) generating profits of 52.1pts at an ROI of 69.5%. That’s from blind betting and is actually far better than just decent.

I appreciate you might not want to blanket bet a certain trainer, so based on the above figures, the following angles are at play today…

  • 11/69 (15.9%) for 58.1pts (+84.2%) from males
  • 11/67 (16.4%) for 60.1pts (+89.7%) from 3-7 yr olds
  • 10/73 (13.5%) for 39.6pts (+53.6%) in handicaps
  • 10/54 (18.5%) for 59.6pts (+110.4%) during 2017-19
  • 7/48 (14.6%) for 48.75pts (+101.6%) during May-July
  • 7/30 (23.3%) for 20.3pts (+67.7%) at odds of 11/4 to 8/1
  • and 5/27 (18.5%) for 62.8pts (+232.6%) over trips of 8½ to 9f

…from which… Rebecca Bastiman’s 3-7 yr old males sent off at odds of 11/4 to 8/1 in Hamilton handicaps during May-July of 2017-19 are 5 from 17 (29.4% SR) for 20.02pts (+117.7% ROI) including 3 winners from 6 (50%) for 21.17pts (+352.8%) over trips of 8½ to 9f…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Be Bold @ 9/2 BOG as was widely available at 1.00am on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 5.15 Hamilton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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