Stat of the Day, 19th July 2019

Thursday’s pick was…

5.15 Hamilton : Be Bold @ 9/2 BOG 2nd at 4/1 (Mid-division, headway over 2f out, driven to chase leaders when not clear run inside final 2f, ridden and stayed on inside final furlong, just held towards finish

Friday’s pick runs in the…

2.50 Nottingham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Queen of Kalahari @ 5/1 BOG

…in a 14-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Good to Firm (good in places) ground worth £3234 to the winner…

Why?

In a race where there are question marks about most of the runners, the form option is our 4 yr old filly, who has finished 2221 in her last four outings over the past 10 weeks or so. All were at Class 6, three over this 6f trip plus a spin over 7f and all in big fields (3 x 13-runners and 1 x 15), so conditions won’t be alien to her.

Despite here recent good form, she’s still only 2lbs higher in the weights than at the start of the run that culminated in a win over 6f at Hamilton last time out, taking her record on the Flat to 3 wins and 4 other places from 13 runs and these include of relevance today…

  • 3 wins and 3 places from 10 on a straight track
  • 2 wins and 3 places from 8 on Good/Good to Firm ground
  • 1 win and 2 places from 4 in fields of 12-15 runners
  • 1 win and 1 place from 2 at Class 6
  • 1 win and 1 place from 4 on Good to Firm
  • finished as runner-up over course and distance on only previous visit to Nottingham

She is trained by Les Eyre, whose runners are 4/17 (23.5% SR) for 20.76pts (+122.1% ROI) here over the last 5 seasons, from which the following angles are at play today…

  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 24.76pts (+190.5%) after a break of less than 40 days
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 26.76pts (+243.3%) at the same class as LTO
  • 3/10 (30%) for 15.02pts (+150.2%) on Good to Firm ground
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 18.36pts (+262.3%) in fields of 11-14 runners
  • 2/6 (33.3%) for 12.09pts (+201.6%) at Class 6
  • 2/5 (40%) for 7.62pts (+152.4%) at odds shorter than 6/1
  • 2/5 (40%) for 11.67pts (+233.4%) at the same distance as LTO
  • and 1/1 in July

…whilst those running on good to firm ground at the same class as their LTO run less than 40 days earlier are 3 from 6 950% SR) for 19.02pts (+317% ROI).

In addition to the above, it’s also worth noting that Les Eyre’s LTO winners who were subsequently sent off at 7/1 and shorter over a 6f trip less than 40 days later are 4 from 8 (50% SR) for 14.06pts (+175.7% ROI) on the Flat (all in handicaps), including 3 winners from 4 (75%) for 9.84pts (+246%) on good to firm ground…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Queen of Kalahari @ 5/1 BOG as was widely available at 5.10pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 2.50 Nottingham

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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