Stat of the Day, 20th July 2019

Friday’s pick was…

2.50 Nottingham : Queen of Kalahari @ 5/1 BOG 4th at 9/2 (Close up, ridden 2f out, stayed on towards finish

Saturday’s pick runs in the…

2.45 Market Rasen :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Global Tour @ 3/1 BOG

…in an 11-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m1f on Good ground worth £4549 to the winner… 

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding seems to have been revitalised since moving to Fergal O’Brien’s yard, finishing 11131 in his five runs for his new handler, all over hurdles under today’s jockey Max Kendrick over trips ranging from 2m to 2m4.5f, including 2 wins from 2 at Class 4.

His last run/win was just a week ago at Newton Abbot and his quick reappearance is no surprise as Fergal’s runners sent back out 1-7 days after their last run are 7 from 20 (35% SR) for 7.75pts (+38.7% ROI) when sent off at odds shorter than 8/1 since the start of 2016.

Not admittedly the largest dataset I’ve brought you, but there are so many subsets at play today that this seems more than coincidental as from the 7/20 record, those horses are…

  • 6/18 (33.3%) for 3.18pts (+17.7%) from male runners
  • 6/14 (42.9%) for 9.61pts (+68.7%) over hurdles
  • 6/14 (42.9%) for 5.33pts (+38.1%) on ground quicker than good to soft
  • 6/11 (54.6%) for 13.42pts (+122%) at trips up to 2m5f
  • 5/11 (45.5%) for 12.91pts (+117.4%) in the second half of the calendar year
  • 5/10 (50%) for 13.91pts (+139.1%) at Class 4
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 15.45pts (+220.7%) at 16-60 days since their second to last outing
  • 3/4 (75%) for 8.85pts (+206.3%) with 6 yr olds
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 1.83pts (+91.5%) with Max Kendrick in the saddle…

…enough, in my opinion, to warrant… a 1pt win bet on Global Tour @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 5.55pm on Friday, although SkyBet stood out with an extra third of a point, if you can get on there. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 2.45 Market Rasen

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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