Stat of the Day, 22nd July 2019

Saturday’s pick was…

2.45 Market Rasen : Global Tour @ 3/1 BOG non-runner

Monday’s pick runs in the…

2.30 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Hard Solution @ 3/1 BOG

…in an 11-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 5f on Good ground worth £2782 to the winner…


This 3 yr old gelding has finished 2113 in his last four starts, with both wins coming at Class 6 and the two defeats at Class 5 and he now drops back in class again.

His trainer David O’Meara has enjoyed consistent success at this venue, notching up 43 winners from 239 (18% SR) handicappers here over the past 8 seasons, generating level stakes profits of 45.2pts at an ROI of 18.9% and these 239 runners include of relevance today…

  • 37/131 (28.2%) for 55.6pts (+42.5%) at odds of 7/4 to 15/2
  • 36/187 (19.25%) for 61.8pts (+33%) after a break of 4-30 days
  • 17/60 (28.3%) for 67.7pts (+112.8%) dropping down a class
  • 16/59 (27.1%) for 17.9pts (+30.3%) finished 2nd or 3rd LTO
  • 10/51 (19.6%) for 27.3pts (+53.5%) over the last two seasons
  • 8/29 (27.6%) for 22.3pts (+76.9%) ridden by David Nolan
  • 7/30 (23.3%) for 36.9pts (+123%) over this 5f C&D
  • and 5/27 (18.5%) for 14.75pts (+54.6%) at Class 6

…whilst simply backing class droppers reappearing 4-45 days after their last run and sent off at 7/4 to 15/2 over the last five seasons would give you 11 winners from 26 (42.3% SR) for 35.6pts (+136.8% ROI), including 3 from 6 under David Nolan…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Hard Solution @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 5.25pm on Sunday, although Bet365 were offering slightly more. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 2.30 Ayr

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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