Stat of the Day, 23rd July 2019

Monday’s pick was…

2.30 Ayr : Hard Solution @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 7/2 (Held up, effort when no room from over 2f out to inside final furlong, kept on last 100yds, nearest finish)

Tuesday’s pick runs in the…

6.50 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Cantiniere @ 5/1 BOG

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…in a 10-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on Standard ground worth £5693 to the winner…

Why?

Cantiniere is a Godolphin runner having her second start in a UK handicap. She’s trained by Saeed bin Suroor, who is in excellent form at the moment. Indeed his form reads:

Last 14 days: 5 wins, 3 more places from 18 runners (28% win, +0.76, A/E 1.21, IV 2.49 – 2.5 times as likely to have a winner than the norm)
Last 30 days: 14 wins, 6 more places from 44 runners (32% win, +18.18, A/E 1.3, IV 2.94)

bin Suroor also has a 30.57% five year win record at the track.

With second time handicap starters (this filly strictly isn’t, but she had an abortive effort in Meydan), he is 14/56 (25%)

Hayley Turner gets the ride and the pairing have an excellent record together. In the last year, they’ve won 7 from 21 (33%, 6 more placed) when teaming up (+7.87, A/E 1.06, IV 3.2).

Cantiniere’s sire, War Front, is a bit of an all weather, erm, stud. He’s got a 20% win record in the last two years on the artificial surfaces (40 from 200).

Positive stats for trainer, jockey and sire…

…give us… a 1pt win bet on Cantiniere @ 5/1 BOG as was available at 6.00pm on Monday with Bet365 were offering slightly more. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 6.50 Chelmsford

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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