Stat of the Day, 24th July 2019

Tuesday’s pick was…

6.50 Chelmsford : Cantiniere @ 5/1 BOG 5th at 6/1 (Towards rear, headway over 1f out, kept on towards finish, beaten 1 1/4 lengths)

Wednesday’s pick runs in the…

4.20 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Fashion Free @ 2/1 BOG

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…in a 10-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 2yo over 7f on Standard ground worth £2782 to the winner…

Why?

A Premier League trainer and Championship-seeking jockey partner up for today’s Stat of the Day.

Fashion Free, the filly in question, is having her second start in a handicap. She ran extremely well from stall 13 (car park) at Pontefract on ‘cap bow, finishing third, and might have won with a kinder draw. But that’s form rather than stats.

The key stat is Oisin Murphy riding for Archie Watson.

In the last year, they’ve combined 88 times for 21 wins (24%, +16.44) and 44 places (50%). That has an IV of 2.29 (more than twice as likely to win together than the average). At Lingfield in the past five years, this A Team is 11 from 32 (34.38%, +9.31, A/E 1.25, IV 2.88).

Archie has a 19% hit rate second time in a handicap (A/E 1.2, IV 1.83) and his recent form has been very good: better than first appearance.

Specifically, a rate of 7 from 43 in the past fortnight is reasonable rather than exciting. But that masks a huge 51% place rate, suggesting Team Watson is in great form but suffering that ‘orrible variance thing.

Down a grade and up a furlong both look positives…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Fashion Free @ 2/1 BOG as was available at 6pm on Tuesday with skybet. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 4.20 Lingfield

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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