Tuesday’s pick was…
6.50 Chelmsford : Cantiniere @ 5/1 BOG 5th at 6/1 (Towards rear, headway over 1f out, kept on towards finish, beaten 1 1/4 lengths)
Wednesday’s pick runs in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Fashion Free @ 2/1 BOG
…in a 10-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 2yo over 7f on Standard ground worth £2782 to the winner…
A Premier League trainer and Championship-seeking jockey partner up for today’s Stat of the Day.
Fashion Free, the filly in question, is having her second start in a handicap. She ran extremely well from stall 13 (car park) at Pontefract on ‘cap bow, finishing third, and might have won with a kinder draw. But that’s form rather than stats.
The key stat is Oisin Murphy riding for Archie Watson.
In the last year, they’ve combined 88 times for 21 wins (24%, +16.44) and 44 places (50%). That has an IV of 2.29 (more than twice as likely to win together than the average). At Lingfield in the past five years, this A Team is 11 from 32 (34.38%, +9.31, A/E 1.25, IV 2.88).
Archie has a 19% hit rate second time in a handicap (A/E 1.2, IV 1.83) and his recent form has been very good: better than first appearance.
Specifically, a rate of 7 from 43 in the past fortnight is reasonable rather than exciting. But that masks a huge 51% place rate, suggesting Team Watson is in great form but suffering that ‘orrible variance thing.
Down a grade and up a furlong both look positives…
…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Fashion Free @ 2/1 BOG as was available at 6pm on Tuesday with skybet. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…
Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!