Stat of the Day, 25th July 2019

Wednesday’s pick was…

4.20 Lingfield : Fashion Free @ 2/1 BOG 5th at 2/1 (Chased leaders, jumped path and stumbled 5f out, soon switched right, switched left over 2f out, stayed on same pace)

Wednesday’s pick runs in the…

7.55 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Waterfront @ 4/1 BOG

…in a 6-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 1m2f on good to firm ground worth £3429 to the winner…

Why?

This three-year-old son of Cape Cross is making his handicap debut here for a trainer who excels in such circumstances. Simon Crisford, once Godolphin’s main media mouthpiece – and pretty hands on behind the scenes, has forged a solid career in the training ranks. His overall annual strike rate is around 20%, but when running a horse first time in a handicap that rose to 27.7% in the last two years (18/65, +11.24, A/E 1.32, IV 2.82).

Crisford has been in excellent recent form, too, his three winners from ten in the past fortnight forming part of a more impressive six from 17 in handicaps in the past 30 days (35.3%, +9.10, A/E 1.84, IV 3.34)

Crisford teams up with veteran French jockey Gerald Mosse, a man enjoying a wonderful renaissance here in Blighty these last couple of seasons, for only the second time – the other being aboard a 33/1 no hoper back in 2017.

Mosse rides Doncaster well and has two wins from eleven spins at the track in the last year (27.3%, +3.00, A/E 1.74, IV 1.6).

It’s a tricky race on a very tricky day, but there is enough to justify a crack…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Waterfront @ 4/1 BOG as was available at 5.30pm on Wednesday with Betfair Sports and Paddy Power. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 7.55 Doncaster

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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