Stat of the Day, 27th July 2019

Friday’s pick was…

7.10 Newmarket : Baba Ghanouj @ 10/3 BOG 3rd at 7/2 (Held up in touch in last trio, not clear run and switched right 2f out, headway under pressure to press leading pair 1f out, kept on well)

Saturday’s pick runs in the…

3.10 Chester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Gabrial The Saint @ 7/1 BOG

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…in a 13-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 5f on good ground worth £11828 to the winner…

Why?

Horses for courses this time, as well as a well known owner for this particular course. Marwan Koukash notoriously loves a Roodee winner, and he’s doubly represented in this five furlong sprint. *Watch your bets alert*

While Gabrial The Devil may be marginally preferred in the early betting skirmishes, it is the course form of Gabrial The SAINT that appeals on a fiendish Saturday.

A winner of three of his 15 turf starts, two of them have come at this tight bullring track, from just seven runs.

Looking specifically at handicap course form, he’s a string of 1241.

Interestingly, for a son of crack sprinter Society Rock out of a mare by Compton Place (another fine sprinter), he’s only had three tries at the minimum. The sole spin over five at Chester resulted in victory in similar Class 3 company.

Let’s underpin the horse for course form with a draw stat: inside stalls have a famous advantage over the Chester minimum. Gabrial The SAINT has trap three and, while not the quickest starter, the good – possibly good to soft – ground should enable him to stalk and pounce after the cutaway in the straight.

Interestingly, Richard Fahey runs him back within a week, an approach he deploys with a good amount of success for such a volume trainer. In the last two years, he’s run 96 horses within a week of their prior start, 22 of them winning (23%, +14.62, A/E 1.29, IV 1.59).

It’s a very competitive race, with ‘the Good Doctor’ (and his trainer) cheering three of the 13 runners, but in spite of that there are reasons to believe this lad is somewhat over-priced…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Gabrial The SAINT @ 7/1 BOG as was available at 5,.30pm on Friday with bet365. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 3.10 Chester

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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