Stat of the Day, 30th July 2019

Monday’s pick was…

2.30 Ayr : House Deposit @ 10/3 BOG 5th at 11/4 (Slowly into stride, towards rear, headway far side of group over 1f out, never reached leaders)

Tuesday’s pick runs in the…

9.00 Perth :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Oromo @ 15/2 BOG

…in a 10-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m on good ground worth £4098 to the winner…

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding is hardly prolific if I’m honest, but with a win and two runner-up finishes in his last five outings, today could be the right day to catch him as he drops in class. He has been to Perth on three previous occasions, winning once and also finishing as a runner-up on one of the other races and his sole career win to date was his only prior crack at this course and distance.

Trainer Karl Thornton doesn’t have the largest string at his disposal (just 26 different runners in the last two years), so it’s unsurprising that he doesn’t send many across the water to Scotland from his base in Skerries, County Dublin. In fact from 2014-18 inclusive, he had just 9 runners here at Perth, but this year has been a different story for him, notching up 4 winners from 7 (57.1% SR) for 14.73pts (+21.4% ROI) at this venue, all from males running in Class 4 contests!

Of these 7…

  • 3/6 (50%) for 9.09pts (+151.6%) in handicaps
  • 3/6 (50%) for 9.09pts (+151.6%) over hurldes
  • 3/6 (50%) for 9.09pts (+151.6%) with 6 yr olds
  • 3/6 (50%) for 9.09pts (+151.6%) with 6 yr old handicap hurdlers
  • 2/4 (50%) for 10.37pts (+259.3%) at 2m/2m0.5f
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 5.36pts (+268%) with jockey Mr JC Barry in the saddle…

The choice of jockey also has some relevance here, as these amateur rider contests are often decided by how much racing experience a rider has and JC Barry is one of the more “streetwise” ones in this contest, with over 600 rides to his name, including winning three of five (60% SR) for profits of 5.11pts (+102.1% ROI) here at Perth in the last 12 months, all in handicap contests, including…

  • 3/4 (75%) for 6.11pts (+152.7%) over hurdles
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 4.36pts (+145.3%) at Class 4
  • 2/2 (100%) for 5.55pts (+277.5%) in Amateur rider contests
  • and 1/1 (100%) for 1.75pts (+175%) over course and distance…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Oromo @ 15/2 BOG as was widely available at 9.30pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 9.00 Perth

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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