Stat of the Day, 31st July 2019

Tuesday’s pick was…

9.00 Perth : Oromo @ 15/2 BOG 4th at 9/2 (Mid-division, headway after 3 out, chased leaders next, never on terms)

Wednesday’s pick runs in the…

7.10 Sandown :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Muraad @ 11/4 BOG

…in an 8-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on good (good to soft in places) ground worth £9338 to the winner…

Why?

A fifth start for a 3 yr old never out of the frame so far (3132) and who was only beaten by a head over this trip at this class in a stronger looking race last time out. That was at Ascot 19 days ago and the runner immediately behind him (1.25 lengths back) has since stepped up to Class 2 and finished as a runner-up in a race worth £28,000 at Ascot on King George day.

Dane O’Neill rides him for the third time today and Dane is in decent nick right now, winning 6 of 22 (27.3% SR) for 21.34pts (+97% ROI) over the past fortnight and has a 3 from 9 (33.3%) for 24.75pts (+275%) record here at Sandown over the last 3 years.

Trainer Owen Burrows is slowly making a name for himself and if you’re not aware of him yet, you might be surprised to find out that blindly backing his runners since the start of 2018 has been a profitable venture with 49 winners from 251 (19.5% SR) producing profits of 83.5pts (+33.3% ROI) over this 19 month period. Although this is steady sustained profit, I’d understand why you’d not want to blanket bet a trainer, so here are “just” a dozen profitable ways he has got those 49 winners so far…

  • 46/221 (20.8%) for101.8pts (+46%) at Classes 2-5
  • 36/169 (21.3%) for 80pts (+47.4%) with 3 yr olds
  • 35/134 (26.1%) for 10.8pts (+8.1%) at odds of Evens to 11/2
  • 33/147 (22.5%) for 66.4pts (+45.2%) after a break of 11-120 days
  • 32/168 (19%) for 63.5pts (+37.8%) on the Flat
  • 30/120 (25%) for 69.2pts (+57.7%) in 3yo+ contests
  • 24/99 (24.2%) for 34.9pts (+35.2%) with 3 yr olds in 3yo+ company
  • 20/90 (22.2%) for 66.7pts (+74.1%) in handicaps
  • 18/72 (25%) for 65.3pts (+90.8%) at 1m/1m0.5f
  • 13/63 (20.6%) for 100pts (+158.8%) on Good/Good to Soft ground
  • 10/62 (16.1%) for 11.1pts (+17.9%) ridden by Dane O’Neill
  • and 9/38 (23.7%) for 54.3pts (+142.9%) on Good ground

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Muraad @ 11/4 BOG as was offered by SkyBet, Betfred & Totesport at 6.00pm on Tuesday, with Betfair offering a further quarter point. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 7.10 Sandown

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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