Stat of the Day, 1st August 2019

Wednesday’s pick was…

7.10 Sandown : Muraad @ 11/4 BOG 8th at 3/1 (Chased leaders on inside, ridden 2f out, weakened soon after, behind and eased final furlong)

Thursday’s pick runs in the…

4.00 Nottingham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Music Seeker @ 6/1 non-BOG until morning or 5/1 BOG

…in a 13-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on soft ground worth £6469 to the winner…

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding has been going well of late, winning twice and placing twice in his last five outings and although he doesn’t win often enough win just 4 victories from 26 to date (although very profitable to follow), he should be suited by conditions today as, of the four wins…

  • 3 were over trips of 10/10.5 furlongs
  • 3 were after a break of 2-3 weeks
  • 3 were in fields of 10-14 runners
  • 3 were on left handed tracks
  • 3 came whilst wearing a tongue tie
  • and 3 came in handicaps

But more tellingly for today, he has 3 wins and 2 places from 8 starts on soft ground.

He is trainer Declan Carroll’s only runner of the day and by default his only runner here at this venue, that has been a pretty good hunting ground for him in recent years, clocking up 11 wiiners from 68 (16.2% SR) for 145.6pts (+214% ROI) over the last five seasons and once again, for those who don’t like blanket betting, I’ve a dozen profitable angles for you to consider here…

  • 11/61 (18%) for 152.6pts (+250.1%) from male runners
  • 10/57 (17.5%) for 135.1pts (+237%) in handicaps
  • 9/56 (16.1%) for 42.1pts (+75.2%) from 2-5 yr olds
  • 9/48 (18.75%) for 155.3pts (+323.5%) at Classes 3-5
  • 9/40 (22.5%) for 116.8pts (+291.9%) after a break of less than 25 days
  • 6/22 (27.3%) for 61.05pts (+277.5%) at 10/10.5 furlongs
  • 6/18 (33.3%) for 10pts (+55.4%) at odds of 5/1 and shorter
  • 5/24 (20.8%) for 53.6pts (+223.4%) as Declan’s only runner at the track
  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 61.6pts (+385.1%) as his only runner of the day
  • 4/15 (26.7%) for 56.3pts (+375.5%) using a jockey claiming 5-7 lbs
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 5.4pts (+45%) with 5 yr olds
  • and 3/11 (27.3%) for 9.48pts (+86.2%) on soft ground…

whilst 2-5 yr old males in Class 3-5 handicaps, 11 to 23 days after their last run are 5 from 13 (38.5% SR) for 18.06pts (+138.9% ROI), including 3/6 (50%) for 14.48pts (+241.3%) over trips of 10/10.5 furlongs.

And as Declan only has this one runner out today, you might be interested to know that his other solo entrants are 27/115 (23.5% SR) for 74.4pts (+64.7% ROI) when sent off at 10/1 or shorter in UK handicaps since the start of 2016…

…pointing us towards… a 1pt win bet on Music Seeker @ 6/1 non-BOG until morning (betfair & PP) or 5/1 BOG (widely) as of 6.30pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 4.00 Nottingham

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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