Stat of the Day, 2nd August 2019

Thursday’s pick was…

4.00 Nottingham : Music Seeker @ 6/1 8th at 3/1 (Chased leaders on inside, ridden 2f out, weakened soon after, behind and eased final furlong)

Friday’s pick runs in the…

2.25 Goodwood :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Duke of Hazzard @ 9/2 BOG

…in the 9-runner, Group 3, Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes for 3yo over 1m on Good ground worth £56,710 to the winner… 

Why?

Keeping it fairly simple today with a 3 yr old colt who broke his UK duck on this very track last season and was also a winner of a Listed race at Deauville as a 2 yr old, beating one of today’s main rivals in the process. He won a Listed race LTO 22 days ago, which took his UK record to 2 wins and 3 places from 9 starts, suggesting that at the very least, we should get a run for our money (albeit late in the piece!)

From those nine previous UK runs, he has…

  • 2 wins, 3 places from 5 after less than 4 weeks rest
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 3 in July/August
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 5 in fields of 6-9 runners
  • 1 win from 3 over a mile
  • 1 from 1 here at Goodwood
  • 1 from 1 under jockey PJ McDonald
  • 1 from 1 in August
  • and 1 from 1 going right handed

Trainer Paul Cole is neither prolific, nor does he comes to Goodwood that often, but over the last three seasons his runners over 1m1f and shorter have won 27% more often than expected via 4 wins from 16 (25% SR) that have generated 2.53pts profit at an ROI of 10.12%. These numbers aren’t earth shattering, admittedly, but that A/E figure of 1.27 is certainly interesting, especially given the horse’s own obvious claims.

That said, of that 4 from 16 record, there are…

  • 3/10 (30%) from those with a top 2 finish LTO
  • 3/7 (42.9%) racing after a break of 21-30 days
  • 2/9 (22.2%) in non-handicaps
  • 2/9 (22.2%) in August
  • and 2 from 4 (50%) shorter than 4/1 (which is where I expect him to end up)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Duke of Hazzard @ 9/2 BOG as was widely available at 6.05pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 2.25 Goodwood

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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