Stat of the Day, 3rd August 2019

Friday’s pick was…

2.25 Goodwood : Duke of Hazzard @ 9/2 BOG  WON at 3/1 (Raced keenly in mid-division, not clear run from inside final 2f until switched left over 1f out, strong run inside final furlong, led towards finish)

Saturday’s pick runs in the…

2.50 Thirsk :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Roundhay Park @ 10/3 BOG

…in a 12-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 5f on Good to Soft ground worth £7,310 to the winner…

Why?

This 4 yr old gelding may have waited a while for his turn to win again, but after making the frame in each of his last three starts, a drop in class allied to favoured ground and preferred trip could be just what he needs to step back into that winners’ enclosure.

After all, he does have 4 wins and 2 places from 8 over this 5f trip as well as 4 wins and a place from 8 when sent off at 4/1 and shorter and he has won twice and placed once from five efforts on Good to Soft ground.

His trainer Nigel Tinkler is 7 from 30 (23.3% SR) for 19.5pts (+65.1% ROI) with sub-12/1 handicappers here at Thirsk over the past four seasons, from which those runners are…

  •  7/26 (26.9%) for 23.44pts (+90.2%) over 5/6 furlongs
  • 6/24 (25%) for 10.29pts (+42.9%) after less than 3 weeks rest
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 15.12pts (+168%) after a top 3 finish LTO
  • 3/11 (27.3%) for 7.75pts (+70.5%) in August/September
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 15.46pts (+193.3%) dropping down a class
  • 2/8 (25%) for 3.34pts (+41.7%) on Good to Soft ground
  • and 1/3 (33.3%) for 3.16pts (+105.3%) with today’s jockey Scott Rowan in the saddle…

…whilst those racing over 5/6f less than 3 weeks after a top 4 finish LTO are 5/10 (50% SR) for 20.28pts (+202.8% ROI).

That stat about class droppers is highlighted by the fact that over the last four seasons, Nigel’s handicappers dropping down a grade on the Flat or A/W are 24/100 (24% SR) for 56pts (+56% ROI) when sent off at odds of 2/1 to 11/1, including…

  • 22/89 (24.7%) for 55.9pts (+62.8%) within 30 days of their last run
  • 19/86 (22.1%) for 34.8pts (+40.5%) on the Flat
  • 15/48 (31.25%) for 43.1pts (+89.8%) finished in the top 4 LTO
  • and 5/21 (23.8%) for 7.9pts (+37.5%) at Class 4

…and those running on the Flat with 30 days of a top 4 inside LTO are 11/39 (28.2% SR) for 25pts (+64.1% ROI)…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Roundhay Park @ 10/3 BOG as was widely available at 6.40pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 2.50 Thirsk

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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