Stat of the Day, 5th August 2019

Saturday’s pick was…

2.50 Thirsk : Roundhay Park @ 10/3 BOG  4th at 11/4 (Chased leaders, ridden over 1f out, kept on same pace, never on terms)

Monday’s pick runs in the…

7.45 Carlisle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Redarna @ 11/4 BOG

…in a 10-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m on Good ground worth £8,086 to the winner…

Why?

This 5yr old gelding has three wins and a place from his last five outings, including winning a Class 3 contest at Ascot under today’s jockey LTO, just nine days ago. He has 7 wins and 3 places from 20 stats in Flat handicaps and these include of relevance today…

  • 7 wins, 3 places from 15 over 7 to 8 furlongs
  • 7 wins, 3 places from 10 after a break of 8 to 28 days
  • 5 wins, 3 places from 14 at odds shorter than 7/1
  • 4 wins, 1 place from 9 on Good to Soft
  • 3 wins, 1 place from 5 in cheekpieces
  • 2 wins, 2 places from 11 here at Carlisle
  • and 1 win plus a place from the 2 rides under today’s jockey, Emma Sayer….

…from which, Redarna is 5 from 9 (55.6% SR) for 24.3pts (+270% ROI) over 7 to 8 furlongs at odds shorter than 7/1 after a break of 8-28 days.

His trainer Dianne Sayer has clocked up 11 winners from 50 (22% SR) for 3.84pts (+7,68% ROI) when sending runners out in handicap company within a fortnight of a top 3 finish LTO and with today’s contest in mind, those 50 runners include…

  • 11/31 (35.5%) for 22.8pts (+73.7%) at odds of 5/4 to 7/1
  • 7/28 (25%) for 5.1pts (+18.2%) after less than 10 days rest
  • 7/23 (30.4%) for 19.1pts (+83.1%) at Class 4
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 13.94pts (+154.9%) from 5 yr olds
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 11.18pts (+159.7%) over trips of 7.5 to 9 furlongs
  • 3/13 (23.1%) for 4.38pts (+33.7%) under jockey Emma Sayer
  • and 3/8 (37.5%) for 8.45pts (+105.7%) on Good to Soft ground…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Redarna @ 11/4 BOG as was widely available at 6.10pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 7.45 Carlisle

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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