Monday’s pick was…
7.45 Carlisle : Redarna @ 11/4 BOG WON at 3/1 (Led, headed over 6f out, came stand side over 2f out, led approaching final furlong, ridden out)
Tuesday’s pick runs in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Space Ace @ 4/1 BOG
…in an 11-runner, Class 5, Flat Nursery for 2yo over 7f on Good ground worth £3,429 to the winner…
This 2 yr old filly is making her handicap/nursery debut after 3 placed efforts (231) in Novice races and after winning a big-field (15 ran) contest last time out 13 days ago, she comes here with a 1/1 record over this 7f trip and she’s also 1/1 under today’s jockey Adam McNamara.
Adam is 5/26 (19.2% SR) over the last 30 days and 3/15 (20%) over the past fortnight, so he’s riding well enough, whilst trainer Archie Watson is 19/99 (19.2%), 11/47 (25.4%) and 6/25 (24%) over the least 30/14/7 days respectively. Unsurprisingly their paths have crossed and together as a team, they are 6 from 19 (31.6% SR) for 18.52pts (+97.5% ROI) with the following angles at play today…
- 6/12 (50%) for 25.52pts (+212.7%) over trips of 6-7.5 furlongs
- 6/12 (50%) for 25.52pts (+212.7%) after a top 3 finish LTO
- 5/16 (31.25%) for 18.87pts (+117.9%) in July/August
- 5/16 (31.25%) for 18.93pts (+118.3%) on the Flat
- 5/8 (62.5%) for 9.52pts (+119%) at odds of 5/1 and shorter
- 4/11 (36.4%) for 21.51pts (+195.5%) from female runners
- 3/10 (30%) for 2.51pts (+25.1%) in handicaps
- 3/9 (33.3%) for 0.71pts (+7.86%) at Class 5
- 3/11 (27.3%) for 14.01pts (+127.4%) with 2 yr olds
- and 2/4 (50%) for 3.29pts (+82.3%) from LTO winners…
…whilst those running in July/August on the Flat at odds of 5/1 and shorter over trips of 6-7 furlongs are 3/4 (75% SR) for 8.27pts (+206.8% ROI) after a top 3 finish LTO with females winning 2 of 2 (100%) for 7.91pts (+395.5%).
Archie Watson’s name crops up quite often in my saved micro systems for 2 yr old runners and here are three of them that apply today…
1. During July-October over trips of 5-7f, those with a run in the previous 60 days are 35/97 (36.1% SR) for 54pts (+55.7% ROI) at odds of Evens to 15/2.
2. In the same July-October time frame at the same Evs to 15/2 odds parameters, those with 5 or fewer previous runs who are being ridden by a jockey not making a claim are 29/86 (33.7% SR) for 37.6pts (+43.8% ROI) after running in a non-hcp race LTO, including 9/19 (47.4%) for 32.3pts (+169.8%) in Nurseries.
3. And his 2yr old handicap debutants are 12/26 (46.2% SR) for 35.6pts (+136.9% ROI) at odds of 7/1 and shorter, including 10/19 (52.6%) for 34.9pts (+183.6%) on the Flat, 5/11 (45.5%) for 20pts (+181.8%) at Class 5 and 4/8 (50%) for 17.06pts (+213.3%) in Class 5 Flat contests…
…all steering us towards… a 1pt win bet on Space Ace @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available at 7.15pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!