Stat of the Day, 8th August 2019

Wednesday’s pick was…

5.50 Pontefract : Highly Sprung @ 6/1 BOG  6th at 11/2 (Chased leaders, ridden 2f out, stayed on same pace inside final furlong)

Thursday’s pick runs in the…

5.10 Brighton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Wiley Post @ 4/1 BOG

…in a 6-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 5½f on Good to Firm ground worth £3,429 to the winner…

Why?

This 6yr old gelding won this very race last year off a mark one pound higher than today and although he hasn’t won since (lightly raced, in fairness), he showed signs of a return to form when beaten by less than a length last time out 23 days ago, also off today’s mark but crucially at Class 3 and it is hoped that dropping two classes will make all the difference here today, as he aims to be the next Tony Carroll-trained winner of a Brighton handicap.

In fact, over the last six seasons, Tony’s handicappers are 36 from 174 (20.7% SR) for 91.6pts (+52.7% ROI) at odds of 6/4 to 14/1 at this venue, including of relevance today…

  • 21/101 (20.8%) for 73.4pts (+72.7%) after a break of 6-25 days
  • 12/53 (22.6%) for 37.7pts (+71.1%) in August
  • 9/44 (20.5%) for 5.81pts (+13.2%) from class droppers
  • and 9/38 (23.7%) for 35.6pts (+93.6%) at Class 5…

…with those racing in August after a break of 6-25 days winning 6 of 29 (20.7% SR) for 26.9pts (+92.8% ROI).

I’m trying to keep it brief today, but I feel I should quickly touch on jockey Tom Marquand, because he is 19 from 100 (19% SR) for 313.5pts (313.5% ROI) here at Brighton over the last three seasons…

…pointing to… a 1pt win bet on Wiley Post @ 4/1 BOG as was offered widely at 5.35pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 5.10 Brighton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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