Thursday’s pick was…
5.10 Brighton : Wiley Post @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 10/11 (Held up in 4th, ridden to chase leaders 2f out, soon one pace, stayed on to take 3rd towards finish, not quite reach front pair)
Friday’s pick runs in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Fitzwilly @ 13/2 non-BOG until morning
…in a 10-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 2m on Polytrack worth £3,429 to the winner…
This 9 yr old gelding has been around the block a few times already and probably found 2m4f too demanding when finishing fourth LTO 23 days ago. In his defence, he had won his previous race a week earlier over a more suitable 2m0.5f which took his career tally to 7 wins at Class 5/6, 6 wins at 2m/2m0.5f and 6 wins in the July-September period of the year, suggesting he should at least be familiar with today’s task.
His jockey Scott McCullagh is in good nick winning 7 of 31 (22.6% SR) for 6.8pts (+21.9% ROI) over the last four weeks, including 3 wins from 13 for today’s trainer, Mick Channon, who himself is 8/45 (17.8% SR) for 45.3pts (+100.6% ROI) in handicaps here at Chelmsford over the last five years.
But it’s neither of those stats I’m primarily concerned with today (although they do back up the selection, of course) : I’m more interested in Mr Channon’s success with A/W handicap stayers, particularly those racing over trips of 1m6f and beyond at what I’d call suitable odds for a public selection ie 5/2 to 9/1 (my usual range for SotD picks), as such runners are 11 from 43 (25.6% SR) for 32.9pts (+76.5% ROI) since 2011 and these include of relevance today…
- 9/36 (25%) for 21.67pts (+60.2%) over 2m/2m0.5f
- 8/32 (25%) for 26.8pts (+83.6%) after 6-30 days rest
- 8/29 (27.6%) for 21.5pts (+74.3%) on Polytrack
- 6/22 (27.3%) for 22pts (+100%) since 2016
- 6/17 (35.3%) for 29.4pts (+172.9%) in fields of 10 or more runners
- 5/20 (25%) for 21pts (+105%) from runners unplaced LTO
- 5/15 (33.3%) for 20.6pts (+137.5%) at Class 6
- and 4 from 10 (40%) for 25.96pts (+259.6%) during August to October…
…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Fitzwilly @ 13/2 non-BOG until morning as was offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 6.00pm on Thursday with plenty of 11/2 BOG available elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!