Stat of the Day, 10th August 2019

Friday’s pick was…

9.10 Chelmsford : Fitzwilly @ 13/2 BOG  9th at 16/1 (Soon mid-division, ridden and weakened over 2f out)

Saturday’s pick runs in the…

7.15 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Bartat @ 3/1 BOG

…in an 11-runner, Class 6, Flat Nursery for 2yo over 6f on Good To Firm ground worth £2,782 to the winner…

Why?

This 2yr old filly got off the mark when winning three days ago at Brighton, finishing strongest over that 5.5f trip and looking like today’s extra half furlong (or even more) might suit her even better.

Trainer Mick Channon hasn’t had too many runners on the turf here at Lingfield, with just 62 handicap entries over the past nine seasons, but with 12 winners (19.4% SR) generating profits of 61.5pts (+99.2% ROI), it can’t be a lack of success keeping him and his horses away.

With this contest in mind, the results of those 62 runners include…

  • 11/52 (21.2%) for 62.5pts (+120.2%) in fields of 6-13 runners
  • 10/39 (25.6%) for 67.1pts (+172%) within 15 days of their last run
  • 9/48 (18.8%) for 65.6pts (+136.7%) over trips of 6 to 11.5 furlongs
  • 8/31 (25.8%) for 16.9pts (+54.4%) at odds of 15/8 to 7/1
  • 7/23 (30.4%) for 13.4pts (+58.1%) at Class 6
  • 4/27 (14.8%) for 50.5pts (+186.9%) from female runners
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 18.54pts (+154.5%) from those stepping up by o.5 to 1 furlong
  • 3/6 (50%) for 5.09pts (+84.9%) this year
  • 2/12 (16.6%) for 5.47pts (+45.6%) from his 2 yr olds
  • and 2/8 (25%) for 9.43pts (+117.9%) from his LTO winners

I don’t really want to dilute a small dataset too much by forming a composite angle, but if you just looked at the first three on the list above and focused on those running in fields of 6-13 runners over trips of 6-11.5 furlongs within 15 days of their last run, you’d have 6 winners from 28 (21.4% SR) for 59.2pts (+211.3% ROI), which effectively gives you 96.3% of the original profit from just 45.2% of the original number of runners…

…and suggests… a 1pt win bet on Bartat @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 6.45pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 7.15 Lingfield

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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