Stat of the Day, 12th August 2019

Saturday’s pick was…

7.15 Lingfield : Bartat @ 3/1 BOG  6th at 9/2 (Mid-division, headway on outside over 2f out, chased leaders over 1f out, no extra closing stages)

Monday’s pick runs in the…

6.50 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Street Poet @ 6/1 BOG

…in an 11-runner, Class 4, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m½f  on Tapeta worth £5,208 to the winner…

Why?…

Here we have a very much in-form 6 yr old gelding seeking a fifth win on the bounce, after six excellent runs here at Wolverhampton where he has finished 221111, the latest of which was a win at this Class 4 grade 20 days ago.

His handicap record at this venue now stands at 6 wins and 5 places from 13 efforts, all in 10-13 runner contests on the Tapeta and these include of note today…

• 6 wins, 1 place from 7 after 11-25 days rest
• 5 wins, 4 places from 9 at odds of 5/2 t0 13/2
• 5 wins from 7 as a non-favourite
• 4 wins, 3 places from 8 this year
• 4 wins, 3 places from 7 at the same class as his last run
• 4 wins, 2 places from 7 wearing no headgear
• 4 wins from 4 as an LTO winner
• 4 wins from 4 in the second half of the year
• 3 wins, 1 place from 5 over course and distance
• 1 from 1 under jockey Danny Redmond
• and 1 from 1 at Class 4…

…whilst his trainer, Michael Herrington has also had more general success at this venue himself, notching up 13 winners from 46 (28.3% SR) for 61.8pts (+134.3% ROI) here over the past 18 months, including…

• 12/37 (32.4%) for 64.6pts (+174.7%) in handicaps
• 12/32 (37.5%) for 49.1pts (+153.5%) at odds of 11/4 to 10/1
• 9/23 (39.1%) for 39.8pts (+173.2%) at 11-25 days since last run
• 8/17 (47.1%) for 62.4pts (+366.7%) from 5/6 yr olds
• 6/9 (66.6%) for 40.1pts (+445.4%) from LTO winners
• 3/8 (37.5%) for 11.8pts (+147.7%) over today’s course and distance
• 1/1 (100%) for 12.83pts (+1283%) with Danny Redmond in the saddle
• and 1 from 5 (20%) for 8.83pts (+176.6%) at Class 4

…and finally, a quick look at Michael Herrington’s record with LTO winners shows that since the start of 2014, they are 12 from 52 (23.1% SR) for 31.1pts (+59.9% ROI) in handicaps when sent off at odds ranging from 5/2 to 10/1, including…

• 10/35 (28.6%) for 39.8pts (+113.7%) on the A/W
• 9/29 (31%) for 36.4pts (+125.7%) after 11-25 days rest
• 7/26 (26.9%) for 13.6pts (+52.2%) at the same class as LTO
• 7/22 (31.8%) for 31.3pts (+142.1%) with 5/6 yr olds
• 7/19 (36.8%) for 32.8pts (+172.5%) on Tapeta
• 6/13 (46.2%) for 36.1pts (+277.6%) here at Wolverhampton
• 2/2 (100%) for 13.82pts (+691%) over 1m½f
• and 1/1 (100%) for 12.83pts (+1283%) with Danny Redmond in the saddle

…all of which suggests chancing .. a 1pt win bet on Street Poet @ 6/1 BOG as was widely available at 6.05pm on Sunday, although the non-BOG until morning pair of Betfair & PP were offering half a point more. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 6.50 Wolverhampton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!