Stat of the Day, 13th August 2019

Monday’s pick was…

6.50 Wolverhampton : Street Poet @ 6/1 BOG 4th at 8/1 (Chased leaders, every chance from over 1f out, no extra closing stages, beaten by little more than a quarter length)

Tuesday’s pick runs in the…

8.00 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Fancy Flyer @ 5/1 BOG

…in an 11-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo over 7f  on Polytrack worth £2,782 to the winner…

Why?

When you’re on a bit of a cold run like I am at present, you’d not normally be looking at horses with a 0 from 12 record to bail you out, but we’ve done it before and both horse and “tipster” are due a win, so let’s take a closer look at this runner’s credentials…

He’s a 3 yr old gelding, who despite failing to break his duck in a dozen attempts, came very close at Epsom last time out, finishing third 26 days ago, beaten by just a length. His yard are having a decent enough “summer” with trainer Dean Ivory’s runners winning 14 of 64 (25.9% SR) handicaps over the last nine weeks for level stakes profits of 91.4pts (+169.3% ROI), from which the following are relevant today…

  • 10/29 (34.5%) for 99.73pts (+343.9%) after a 21-60 day break
  • 10/26 (38.5%) for 55.53pts (+213.6%) after a top 4 finish LTO
  • 10/22 (45.5%) for 28.19pts (+128.1%) at 7/1 and shorter
  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 24pts (+171.5%) over 7f
  • 4/16 (25%) for 16.37pts (+102.3%) at Class 6
  • and 4/7 (57.1%) for 15.47pts (+221%) from those beaten by a length or less LTO…

…with those sent off at 7/1 and shorter, 6-45 days after a top 4 finish LTO winning 8 of 16 (50% SR) for 24.55pts (+153.4% ROI) including 5/9 (55.6%) for 13.99pts (+155.5%) over 7f and shorter.

Dean’s overall record in A/W handicaps here at Lingfield since 2013 stands at 23 from 108 (21.3% SR) for 55.54pts (+51.4% ROI) from runners priced at 5/2 to 10/1, including…

  • 22/102 (21.6%) for 58.36pts (+57.2%) in fields of 7 or more runners
  • 22/97 (22.7%) for 63.53pts (+65.5%) over trips of 1m2f and shorter
  • 16/58 (27.6%) for 43.23pts (+74.5%) after a top 4 finish LTO
  • 12/42 (28.6%) for 36.5pts (+87%) after a break of 21-60 days
  • 9/50 (18%) for 16.92pts (+33.8%) at Class 6
  • and 7/18 (38.9%) for 24.63pts (+136.9%) in 3yo races…

…from which, those racing in fields of 7 or more runners over 1m2f and shorter, 11-60 days after a top 4 finish LTO are 13 from 38 (34.2% SR) for 50.98pts (+134.2% ROI), including 5/12 (41.7%) for 28.83pts (+240.3%) at Class 6 and 5/6 (83.3%) for 28.83pts (+480.5%) in 3yo races…

…whilst like today, in 3yo Class 6 contests, they are 3/3 (100% SR) for 24pts (+800% ROI)…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Fancy Flyer @ 5/1 BOG as was widely available at 5.15pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 8.00 Lingfield

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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