Stat of the Day, 14th August 2019

Tuesday’s pick was…

8.00 Lingfield : Fancy Flyer @ 5/1 BOG WON at 10/3 (Made all, switched left over 6f out, driven over 1f out, stayed on well to win by 3.5 lengths)

Wednesday’s pick runs in the…

3.30 Beverley :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Archie Perkins @ 4/1 BOG

…in a 9-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Good ground worth £7,719 to the winner…

Why?…

Because he’s an in-form (11331 in his last five runs) 4 yr old gelding who would appear to have conditions to suit him returning to Beverley, some 33 days after winning a better race than this under today’s jockey at York last time out, plus there are a couple of strings to his trainer’s bow that appeal here too.

So, let’s start with the horse himself. His career tally currently stands at 6 wins and 6 places from 23 outings to date and this 6+6/23 record includes of relevance today…

• 6+5/13 at odds shorter than 6/1
• 5+5/10 on the Flat
• 3+2/6 this year
• 3+2/5 over this 1m2f trip
• 3+2/5 under jockey Scott Rowan
• 3+1/7 here at Beverley
• 2+2/4 at Class 4
• 2+1/5 in August
• and 2+1/3 over this course and distance

His success here at Beverley, especially over today’s trip is no surprise, however, when you consider that over the past two seasons here, trainer Nigel Tinkler’s handicappers sent off at odds of 7/1 and shorter have won 12 of 22 (54.6% SR) for profits of 36.9pts at a very attractive ROI of 167.7%, from which…

• males are 10/15 (66.6%) for 35.07pts (+233.8%)
• over this 1m2f C&D : 6/11 (54.6%) for 22.05pts (+200.4%)
• LTO winners are 5/9 (55.6%) for 7.56pts (+84%)
• 4 yr olds are 5/8 (62.5%) for 13.26pts (+165.8%)
• those ridden by Scott Rowan are 2/4 (50%) for 11.16pts (+278.9%)
• in August : 2/3 (66.6%) for 3.62pts (+120.6%)
• and on Good ground : 2/2 (100%) for 9.97pts (+498.5%)

And with LTO winners going well here in the last two seasons, it’s worth noting that this success isn’t limited to this particular track, as over that same time frame, Nigel’s LTO winners are 18/63 (28.6% SR) for 55pts (+87.3% ROI) in Flat handicaps, including the following angles in play today…

• 17/56 (30.4%) for 42pts (+75%) at 6-45 days after their last run
• 14/45 (31.1%) for 39.27pts (+87.3%) from male runners
• 14/27 (51.9%) for 25.24pts (+93.5%) at odds shorter than 9/2
• 5/19 (26.3%) for 18.57pts (+97.7%) at Class 4
• 5/14 (35.7%) for 19.42pts (+138.7%) from 4 yr olds
• 5/14 (35.7%) for 14.85pts (+106%) with Scott Rowan in the saddle
• 5/11 (45.5%) for 5.56pts (+50.6%) here at Beverley
• 4/11 (36.4%) for 32.58pts (+296.2%) in August
• and 4/8 (50%) for 14.53pts (+181.6%) over 9/10 furlongs

…from which males sent off at 4/1 and shorter some 6-45 days after their LTO win are 11/20 (55% SR) for 20.57pts (+102.85% ROI)…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Archie Perkins @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available at 5.35pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 3.30 Beverley

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!