Stat of the Day, 16th August 2019

Thursday’s pick was…

2.10 Lingfield : Visionara @ 4/1 BOG WON at 11/4 (Pressed leader, led 2f out, ridden over 1f out, edged left inside final furlong, driven out to win by a length and three quarters)

Friday’s pick runs in the…

4.00 Newbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Charlemaine @ 7/2 BOG

…in an 8-runner, Class 4, Flat Nursery for 2yo over 5f on Good To Soft ground worth £5,208 to the winner…


This 2 yr old colt has won two (his first & his last) of his four starts to date, with his two defeats coming in far better (C2 & listed) big-field contests. He did, however win LTO when making his handicap/nursery debut at Sandown 16 days ago, when he also wore the blinkers for the first time in public.

His trainer Paul Cole has got his horses going well enough without ripping up any trees, but 2 winners and 2 placers from 7 over the last week is a decent enough return and whilst he doesn’t send many here to Newbury, once again he does well enough without reaching superstar status.

In fact over the last four seasons, Paul has only had 38 runners at this track, but 6 winners (15.8% SR) and 49.5pts (+130.2% ROI) is a good return for both him and his followers. Of those 38 runners and of relevance today…

  • 4/21 (19.1%) for 35.8pts (+170.6%) at Class 4
  • 4/16 (25%) for 25.8pts (+161.1%) at 12/1 and shorter
  • 4/10 (40%) for 50.8pts (+508%) in fields of 8-10 runners
  • 3/15 (20%) for 37pts (+246.9%) with 2 yr olds
  • 2/8 (25%) for 22.7pts (+283.3%) on Good to Soft
  • and 1/3 (33.3%) for 18.9pts (+630%) with David Probert in the saddle

…and a composite from the above? OK, 2/3 yr olds  + Classes 3-5 + 16/1 max SP = 5/10 (50% SR) for 55.58pts (+555.8% ROI) including 2 yr olds at 2/3 (66.6%) for 27.15pts (+905%).

Meanwhile, during that same last four seasons time frame, Paul Cole’s LTO winners are 12 from 55 (21.8% SR) for 36.1pts (+65.6% ROI) when sent off at 2/1 or bigger in handicaps, including of note today…

  • 11/46 (23.9%) for 35.5pts (+77.2%) from male runners
  • 10/37 (27%) for 46.7pts (+126.3%) at trips of 5-8 furlongs
  • 8/21 (38.1%) for 38.6pts (+183.9%) from August to November
  • 7/22 (31.8%) for 28pts (+127.3%) at Class 4
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 15.05pts (+125.4%) in fields of 7-8 runners
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 11.35pts (+567.5%) with 2 yr olds

…from which, you could consider males at 5-8 furlongs during August to November for 6 from 12 (50% SR) and 34.3pts (+285.5% ROI) profit…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Charlemaine @ 7/2 BOG as was available from Bet365 & SkyBet at 6.00pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 4.00 Newbury

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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