Stat of the Day, 17th August 2019

Friday’s pick was…

4.00 Newbury : Charlemaine @ 7/2 BOG non-runner (Reason: Going)

Saturday’s pick runs in the…

3.55 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Dazzling Dan @ 10/3 or 3/1 BOG

…in a 9-runner, Class 2, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 6f on Good ground worth £28,012 to the winner…

Why?

This 3 yr old gelding has had 8 runs to date, all over today’s 6f trip and he he has made the frame 6 times, winning twice. He went down by just a length last time out, when beaten into third place over this course and distance in a much more valuable Class 2 handicap 37 days ago.

He has been placed on both previous runs over course and distance and was a winner on his only run on the Rowley Mile and has a win and a place from 3 rides under today’s jockey David Probert. He also has a win and a place from 3 efforts at Class 2 and a win and a place from two starts on Good ground.

His trainer Pam Sly is another who doesn’t break too many pots, but is very good in certain conditions and her speciality seems to be over shorter distances, as over the last three Flat seasons, her runners are 12 from 52 (23.1% SR) for 49.9pts (+95.9% ROI) over trips of 6 to 7.5 furlongs, including of relevance today…

  • 10/37 (27%) for 48.5pts (+131.1%) from May to August
  • 9/38 (23.7%) for 30pts (+79%) at 10-40 days since last run
  • 8/19 (42.1%) for 23.4pts (+123.4%) at 2/1 to 5/1
  • 7/19 (36.8%) for 20pts (+105.1%) after a top 3 finish LTO
  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 47.7pts (+340.9%) over a 6f trip
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 33.1pts (+254.7%) from 3 yr olds
  • and 3/6 (50%) for 9.3pts (+155%) in August

…from which…those sent off at 2/1 to 5/1 during May to August some 10 to 40 days after a top 3 finish LTO are 6 from 7 (85.7% SR) for 28.5pts (+407.1% ROI) including 3/4 from 3 yr olds, 2/2 over 6f and 2/2 in August…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Dazzling Dan @ 10/3 or 3/1 BOG as was available from Bet365 & BetVictor respectively at 11.00pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 3.55 Newmarket

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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