Stat of the Day, 19th August 2019

Saturday’s pick was…

3.55 Newmarket : Dazzling Dan @ 10/3 BOG WON at 10/3 (With leader, led entering final furlong, stayed on strongly to win by half a length)

Monday’s pick runs in the…

4.45 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Tarseekh @ 7/2 BOG

…in a 12-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Polytrack worth £2,782 to the winner…


This 6 yr old gelding has made the first four home in each of his last seven outings and was in serious contention in all bar one of them and actually winning twice, including an LTO success at Chelmsford at this grade/trip 27 days ago.

He’s up 3lbs for that win, but the 3lb claimer on board that day has now been replaced by a jockey claiming five, so we’re effectively only a pound worse off than his last outing, which should keep him competitive today.

He’s of further interest here, as his trainer Charlie Wallis tends to do well with his A/W sprinters and I look out for his runners in handicaps at trips of 6f and shorter, since they are 39/198 (19.7% SR) for 81.6pts (+41.2% ROI) since the start of 2016 at odds of 12/1 and shorter, from which…

  • 37/173 (21.4%) for 92pts (+53.2%) after a break of 4-45 days
  • 29/131 (22.1%) for 70.3pts (+53.7%) on Polytrack
  • 27/113 (23.9%) for 76.2pts (+67.5%) from 5/6 yr olds
  • 22/96 (22.9%) for 46.1pts (+48%) at Class 6
  • 8/30 (26.7%) for 39.7pts (+132.3%) ridden by a 3/5 lb claimer
  • and 5/13 (38.5%) for 13.73pts (+105.6%) during August/September

and 5/6 yr olds competing at Class 6 on Polytrack after 4-45 days rest are 11 from 34 (32.4% SR) for 43pts (+126.5% ROI)

…pointing to… a 1pt win bet on Tarseekh @ 7/2 BOG as was available from SkyBet, Betfair & Paddy Power (although the last two don’t go BOG until morning) respectively at 6.00pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 4.45 Lingfield

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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