Stat of the Day, 20th August 2019

Monday’s pick was…

4.45 Lingfield : Tarseekh @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 4/1 (Led, pushed along 2f out, ridden and headed close home, beaten by half a length)

Tuesday’s pick runs in the…

3.40 Brighton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Paddy The Chef @ 9/2 non-BOG until morning or 4/1 BOG

…in a 12-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m4f on Good ground worth £2,782 to the winner…

Why?

This 4 yr old gelding has hardly set the world on fire with a string of a dozen defeats since his solitary success almost 59 weeks ago, but his best run of the 12 losses was surely his effort at Yarmouth last time out, when finishing third in a big field (16 ran) just 1.25 lengths off the winner whilst staying on well at the end.

The extra half furlong here gives me more hope of him stepping up here, as does the fact he comfortably beat three of today’s rivals comfortably that day and with jockey Cieren Fallon taking the ride and claiming 5lbs today off an unaltered mark, that should also work in our/his favour.

Stat-wise, it revolves around horses coming off losing runs and the marks allotted to them by the official handicapper, as trainer Ian Williams’ Class 5/6 handicappers running off marks lower than their last win are 24 from 141 (17% SR) for 74.9pts (+53.1% ROI) profit over the last six (inc. this one, of course) seasons, including of relevance today…

  • 22/113 (19.5%) for 71.1pts (+63%) from 3-7 yr olds
  • 20/79 (25.3%) for 61.8pts (+78.2%) at SP odds of 9/4 to 11/1
  • 19/117 (16.2%) for 69.5pts (+59.4%) within 45 days of their last run
  • 15/47 (31.9%) for 33.5pts (+71.2%) at SP odds of 9/4 to 6/1
  • 14/49 (28.6%) for 72.1pts (+147.1%) from those on a run of 11-16 defeats
  • 11/62 (17.7%) for 27.2pts (+43.9%) on the Flat
  • and 8/16 (50%) for 34.06pts (+212.9%) from those finishing 2nd or 3rd LTO

…whilst, based on the above and of interest here… 4 to 7 yr olds with 11-16 consecutive defeats now sent off at odds of 9/4 to 11/1 after a break of 1-3 weeks are 7 from 10 (70% SR) for 52.41pts (+524.1% ROI), including 3 from 4 (75%) for 22.32pts (+558%) from those finishing 2nd or 3rd LTO…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Paddy The Chef @ 9/2 non-BOG until morning or 4/1 BOG as was available from BF/PP and Bet365 respectively at 5.25pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 3.40 Brighton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

Your first 30 days for just £1
0 replies

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *