Stat of the Day, 21st August 2019

Tuesday’s pick was…

3.40 Brighton : Paddy The Chef @ 4/1 BOG 8th at 7/2 (Tracked leaders, ridden to lead 2f out, headed over 1f out, weakened inside final furlong)

Wednesday’s pick runs in the…

5.30 Worcester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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King Alfonso @ 9/2 BOG

…in a 7-runner, Class 3, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m½f on Good ground worth £7,018 to the winner…


Trainer Dai Burchell’s 10 yr old gelding had a hat-trick of wins within six weeks starting around this time last year (18th August to be precise) and he comes here in another spell of decent form having finished 312 in his last three outings. He can consider himself unlucky not to be seeking a hat-trick again today, having only been beaten by a length last time out here over course and distance 22 days ago, despite his saddle slipping at the last fence.

Today’s race conditions should suit him, though, as his chase record includes…

  • 4/12 after 13-28 days rest
  • 4/12 in fields of 4-7 runners
  • 4/9 on Good ground
  • 3/9 over 2m½f /2m1f
  • 3/9 at odds of 5/2 to 6/1
  • 2/9 here at Worcester (inc a win over C&D)
  • and 1/1 under jockey Ben Jones.

This horse was sired by Desert King, whose handicap chasers have won 21 of 105 (20% SR) contests since the start of 2016, generating profits of 59.23pts at an ROI of 56.4%, with those competing at distances shorter than 2m2f winning 13 of 44 (29.6%) for 54.5pts (+123.9%).

And after looking at horse and sire, let’s now focus on trainer Dai Burchell, as his handicap chasers sent off at 10/1 and shorter are 30/119 (25.2% SR) for 65.6pts (+55.1% ROI) since 2012, including of relevance today…

  • 28/89 (31.5%) for 89.7pts (+100.8%) after a break of 11-45 days
  • 21/72 (29.2%) for 70.1pts (+97.4%) from runners aged 9 or older
  • 19/72 (26.4%) for 39pts (+54.1%) after a top 3 finish LTO
  • 19/64 (29.7%) for 69.8pts (+109%) during April-August
  • 6/25 (24%) for 18.75pts (+75%) at Class 3
  • 5/21 (23.8%) for 7.73pts (36.8%) at 2m1f and shorter
  • 4/16 (25%) for 7.46pts (+46.6%) here at Worcester
  • and 4/16 (25%) for 8.57pts (+53.6%) since the start of last year

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on King Alfonso @ 9/2 BOG as was widely available at 5.45pm on Tuesday, whilst Bet365 were offering a further half point. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 5.30 Worcester

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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