Stat of the Day, 23rd August 2019

Thursday’s pick was…

1.00 Stratford : Blue N Yellow @ 3/1 BOG 5th at 3/1 (Chased leaders, not fluent 3 out or 2 out, soon weakened)

Friday’s pick runs in the…

2.50 Ffos Las :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Royal Residence @ 3/1 BOG

…in a 9-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Good ground worth £7,246 to the winner…

Why?

This 4 yr old colt won last time out when landing a similar Class 3, 6 furlong handicap when ridden by today’s jockey for the first time 24 days ago.

That was Callum’s third win in ten rides (30% SR) for trainer James Tate over the last couple of years and anybody backing this partnership would now be 8.74pts (+87.4% ROI) ahead of the layers, including..

  • 3 wins from 4 (75%) for 14.74pts (+368.5%) at odds of 9/4 to 8/1
  • 2 from 5 (40%) for 9.42pts (+188.4%) from male runners
  • and a perfect 2/2 (100%) for 6.65pts (+332.5%) in handicaps.

James Tate has had a pretty decent year so far, clocking up winners at a decent rate : 45/185 (24.3% SR) over the past six months, 17/78 (21.8%) over the past two months and even 4/19 (21.1%) in the past fortnight, whilst his record with LTO winners since the start of 2016 is excellent at 31 from 108 (28.7% SR) for 20.2pts (+18.7% ROI) in handicaps.

Of those 108 LTO winners, I’m only really interested in those that I’d consider “SotD territory” ie those sent off shorter than 6/1 and these are very much worth backing at 30 from 78 (38.5% SR) for 32.1pts (+41.2% ROI) profit, including of relevance today…

  • 24/59 (40.7%) for 34.8pts (+59.1%) at trips shorter than 1m2f
  • 21/50 (42%) for 32.34pts (+64.7%) in fields of 7-12 runners
  • 19/49 (38.8%) for 34.2pts (+69.8%) at three weeks or longer since their LTO win
  • 19/46 (41.35) for 13.8pts (+30%) from male runners
  • 15/37 (40.5%) for 12.2pts (+33%) at the same class as LTO
  • 11/34 (32.4%) for 16.7pts (+49.1%) on the Flat
  • 7/22 (31.8%) for 8.76pts (+39.8%) this year
  • 7/12 (58.3%) for 17pts (+142%) over 200 miles from home
  • 5/8 (62.5%) for 10.7pts (+133.5%) on Good ground
  • and 3/10 (30%) for 3.48pts (+34.8%) at Class 3

…and I know some of you like to see how runners fitting more than one subset of data get on, so if you wanted a composite from the above…those running in fields of 7-12 runners over trips shorter than 1m2f at same class or up one level as LTO after at least 3 weeks rest are 14 from 27 (51.9%) for 34.6pts (+128% ROI) and these include 3/6 (50%) for 11.35pts (+189.2%) so far this year…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Royal Residence @ 3/1 BOG as was available from BetVictor & Coral at 6.25pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 2.50 Ffos Las

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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